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The 7 - Football - BCS Standings
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Grimis
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#1 Posted on 21.10.03 0907.36
Reposted on: 21.10.10 0907.53
Well, here's the full list(trust me, that's easier than this):

POLL COMP SCHD SUB QUAL
TEAM AP USA AVG AVG SS RANK L TOT WIN TOTAL
---- -- --- ---- ---- -- ---- - --- --- -----
1. Oklahoma 1 1 1.0 1.33 11 0.44 0 2.77 2.77
2. Miami 2 2 2.0 1.50 30 1.20 0 4.70 -0.60 4.10
3. Virginia Tech 3 3 3.0 4.83 60 2.40 0 10.23 10.23
4. Georgia 4 5 4.5 6.17 33 1.32 1 12.99 12.99
5. Florida State 6.5 7 6.75 4.67 18 0.72 1 13.14 13.14
6. Ohio State 8 8 8.0 4.00 5 0.20 1 13.20 13.20
7. Southern Cal 5 4 4.5 7.17 29 1.16 1 13.83 13.83
8. Purdue 10 10 10.0 8.50 50 2.00 1 21.50 21.50
9. Washington St 6.5 6 6.25 13.67 76 3.04 1 23.96 23.96
10. No. Illinois 12 14 13.0 9.00 100 4.00 0 26.00 26.00
11. Nebraska 14 11 12.5 11.67 32 1.28 1 26.45 26.45
12. LSU 9 9 9.0 15.00 56 2.24 1 27.24 -0.70 26.54
13. Michigan St 11 12 11.5 12.50 61 2.44 1 27.44 27.44
14. Texas Christian 15 13 14.0 10.33 96 3.84 0 28.17 28.17
15. Iowa 16 16 16.0 13.67 10 0.40 2 32.07 32.07


COMPUTER RANKINGS
-----------------

AND BIL COL MAS NYT SAG WOL
--- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1. Oklahoma 2 1 1 1 1 2 2
2. Miami 1 2 2 2 2 1 1
3. Virginia Tech 3 11 4 5 3 16 3
4. Georgia 8 4 7 7 8 3 8
5. Florida State 5 8 5 4 5 5 4
6. Ohio State 7 3 3 3 4 6 5
7. Southern Cal 11 5 8 6 9 4 12
8. Purdue 9 7 11 9 6 13 9
9. Washington St 14 6 16 18 19 11 17
10. No. Illinois 6 19 6 8 27 8 7
11. Nebraska 10 33 10 12 10 17 11
12. LSU 18 12 15 16 13 18 16
13. Michigan St 13 18 13 13 12 14 10
14. TCU 4 14 9 14 33 15 6
15. Iowa 16 13 17 11 16 12 14

AND - Anderson & Hester
BIL - Richard Billingsley
COL - Colley Matrix
MAS - Kenneth Massey
NYT - New York Times
SAG - Jeff Sagarin USA Today
WOL - Peter Wolfe


Northern Illinois is the first non-BCS team to start in the top 10 of the first BCS poll of the season. No team has ever won the national title outside of that top 10. So NIU has a shot at a BCS bowl game, but would need at least four of those teams to drop behind them to get to # 6. Knowing this season though, it could happen


BOWL PROJECTIONS BASED ON THE BCS
Sugar: # 1 Oklahoma vs # 2 Miami
Rose: # 6 Ohio State vs # 7 Southern Cal
Orange: # 4 Georgia vs # 5 Florida State
Fiesta: # 3 Virginia Tech vs # 9 Washington State


Purdue gets left at the altar in this scenario because you can't overlook undefeated VaTech and Wazzu would travel better from Pullman than Purdue from West Lafayette.

Of course, the Miami-VT game wil straighten some of this out, but of course god knows what happens after that.


(edited by Grimis on 21.10.03 1042)
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#2 Posted on 21.10.03 0939.54
Reposted on: 21.10.10 0939.57
Just a very minor point, Northern Illinois is commonly referred to as NIU. Just as the pesky Salukis who appear in the NCAA basketball tourney are SIU. And University of Illinois is more commonly referred as University of losers in a cornfield ;)
Grimis
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#3 Posted on 21.10.03 0943.05
Reposted on: 21.10.10 0943.40
Fixed....don't know why I even put it in like that since I was making an effort NOT to do that.
redsoxnation
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#4 Posted on 21.10.03 0953.48
Reposted on: 21.10.10 0954.03
Looking at the bowl predictions: Washington State and USC face each other, so that will bounce one of the teams out.
The team that really has to be kicking itself is Michigan State, because if they hold onto a 12 point lead at home with a minute to go against Lousiana Tech, they are unbeaten and in the top 4.
Funny thing for Northern Illinois: The year you knock off Alabama and could get a big boost from it, Bama sucks. So that win won't really do much the further into the season we go (that, and Bowling Green probably knocks Northern Illinois off this weekend. Big wins already against Purdue and close loss at Ohio State).
Grimis
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#5 Posted on 21.10.03 1048.59
Reposted on: 21.10.10 1049.09
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    (that, and Bowling Green probably knocks Northern Illinois off this weekend. Big wins already against Purdue and close loss at Ohio State).

And if NIU beats BGSU, then that dramatically boosts NIU's SOS, maybe enough to get them one spot higher than they would've been otherwise.
redsoxnation
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#6 Posted on 21.10.03 1105.24
Reposted on: 21.10.10 1105.52
Here is the most plausible way for Northern Illinois to end up in the National Title Game (and yes, this is a scenario that could occur)

Northern Illinois runs the table (with big wins over Toledo and Bowling Green, plus conference title game).
Oklahoma runs the table. That knocks out any possiblity of Nebraska.
Pitt runs the table and wins the Big East (thus Miami and Va. Tech have at least 1 loss, plus one of them would have 2 losses).
Michigan runs the table (eliminating Michigan State, Purdue, and Ohio State).
Washington State beats USC, but then loses to Washington, thus causing 2 losses for each team.
Florida runs the table (giving FSU and Georgia 2 losses each, and it would mean 2 losses for LSU if they were to face Florida in the SEC Title game).

Outside of Pitt knocking off both Miami and Virginia Tech, this actually gives Northern Illinois a semi-realistic chance to play in the national title game. OF course, it'll end up Oklahoma 81-3.
Battlezone
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#7 Posted on 21.10.03 1222.49
Reposted on: 21.10.10 1224.18
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    Here is the most plausible way for Northern Illinois to end up in the National Title Game (and yes, this is a scenario that could occur)

    Northern Illinois runs the table (with big wins over Toledo and Bowling Green, plus conference title game).
    Oklahoma runs the table. That knocks out any possiblity of Nebraska.
    Pitt runs the table and wins the Big East (thus Miami and Va. Tech have at least 1 loss, plus one of them would have 2 losses).
    Michigan runs the table (eliminating Michigan State, Purdue, and Ohio State).
    Washington State beats USC, but then loses to Washington, thus causing 2 losses for each team.
    Florida runs the table (giving FSU and Georgia 2 losses each, and it would mean 2 losses for LSU if they were to face Florida in the SEC Title game).

    Outside of Pitt knocking off both Miami and Virginia Tech, this actually gives Northern Illinois a semi-realistic chance to play in the national title game. OF course, it'll end up Oklahoma 81-3.


I don't know about that. Even if NIU ran the table and all of the above happened, I still think a one loss Miami team is ranked ahead of them, as well as as a two loss Georgia, OSU or USC. And if Florida runs the table, they'd be up there too, just on strength of schedule alone.

On a somewhat related note, redsoxnation, let's say the Florida runs the table, but Ron Zook makes a completely boneheaded coaching decision in the SEC title game and loses. Who loses their job first, Zook or Grady Little?

Zeruel
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#8 Posted on 21.10.03 1230.21
Reposted on: 21.10.10 1230.47
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    Here is the most plausible way for Northern Illinois to end up in the National Title Game (and yes, this is a scenario that could occur)

    Northern Illinois runs the table (with big wins over Toledo and Bowling Green, plus conference title game).
    Oklahoma runs the table. That knocks out any possiblity of Nebraska.
    Pitt runs the table and wins the Big East (thus Miami and Va. Tech have at least 1 loss, plus one of them would have 2 losses).
    Michigan runs the table (eliminating Michigan State, Purdue, and Ohio State).
    Washington State beats USC, but then loses to Washington, thus causing 2 losses for each team.
    Florida runs the table (giving FSU and Georgia 2 losses each, and it would mean 2 losses for LSU if they were to face Florida in the SEC Title game).

    Outside of Pitt knocking off both Miami and Virginia Tech, this actually gives Northern Illinois a semi-realistic chance to play in the national title game. OF course, it'll end up Oklahoma 81-3.


With NIUs wins over MD and Iowa, if they run the table, or put up a good record, that will help drop NIUs SOS points from the 4.00 they have now. 'Bama's not gonna help them out , so that win may have been over North Texas as far as the SOS is concerned...
redsoxnation
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#9 Posted on 21.10.03 1442.37
Reposted on: 21.10.10 1443.54
    Originally posted by Battlezone
      Originally posted by redsoxnation
      Here is the most plausible way for Northern Illinois to end up in the National Title Game (and yes, this is a scenario that could occur)

      Northern Illinois runs the table (with big wins over Toledo and Bowling Green, plus conference title game).
      Oklahoma runs the table. That knocks out any possiblity of Nebraska.
      Pitt runs the table and wins the Big East (thus Miami and Va. Tech have at least 1 loss, plus one of them would have 2 losses).
      Michigan runs the table (eliminating Michigan State, Purdue, and Ohio State).
      Washington State beats USC, but then loses to Washington, thus causing 2 losses for each team.
      Florida runs the table (giving FSU and Georgia 2 losses each, and it would mean 2 losses for LSU if they were to face Florida in the SEC Title game).

      Outside of Pitt knocking off both Miami and Virginia Tech, this actually gives Northern Illinois a semi-realistic chance to play in the national title game. OF course, it'll end up Oklahoma 81-3.


    I don't know about that. Even if NIU ran the table and all of the above happened, I still think a one loss Miami team is ranked ahead of them, as well as as a two loss Georgia, OSU or USC. And if Florida runs the table, they'd be up there too, just on strength of schedule alone.

    On a somewhat related note, redsoxnation, let's say the Florida runs the table, but Ron Zook makes a completely boneheaded coaching decision in the SEC title game and loses. Who loses their job first, Zook or Grady Little?








Little's gone by next Monday morning, as they won't pick up his option or extend his contract.
Now, onto some of the problems submitted: Florida has 3 losses, so forget them. Miami probably would have to be the Big East team that loses twice, as Va. Tech's SOS isn't the greatest thing in the world either. USC, Georgia and Ohio State would get screwed as they would drop in the ratings, as 2 conference losses would cause a conference title to be highly doubtful. Northern Illinois needs to sneak up in the polls and hope for the computers to break their way. Its a longshot, but barring one of those Everyone Loses to the State University of New Jersey scenarios, it probably the best scenario there is for them, and at worse it would put them in a BCS Bowl Game. Now, TCU would probably need the Everyone Loses to the State University of New Jersey Scenario just to get into a BCS game.
Grimis
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#10 Posted on 21.10.03 1520.32
Reposted on: 21.10.10 1523.14
Let's also not forgot that a 2-loss Colorado team almost got into the # 2 slot and the Rose Bowl against Miami. NIU in almost no situation is a decent bet for the Sugar Bowl unless OU runs the table and a bunch of teams wind up with 2 and 3 losses. That will not happen.
Mystic Gohan 2003
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#11 Posted on 21.10.03 1548.45
Reposted on: 21.10.10 1548.54
Pfft, where's Oklahoma State? I hate the BCS...
Gugs
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#12 Posted on 21.10.03 1735.54
Reposted on: 21.10.10 1736.44
I want a flipping playoff!

That's all I have to say. A computer should never decide which team is better or more deserving than another.
Battlezone
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#13 Posted on 21.10.03 1849.01
Reposted on: 21.10.10 1849.37
You know what *I* would do if I were in charge of the BCS? (Outside of trying to figure out a workable playoff, that is.) I'd ditch one of the computer polls and replace it with a fan poll. Have a site where a fans can register, and vote for the Top 25 each week. Then factor that into the BCS formula. I wouldn't give it at much weight as the other polls (because of the unscrupulous types that would try to rig the vote), but let it factor in nonetheless. And that way, fans could at least FEEL like they're part of the process.

I'd bet that ease at least SOME of the natural distrust people have for these computers.

On to Northern Ilinois: I do think that if NIU runs the table, they fully deserve a BCS bowl slot, especially over, for example, a Big 10 runner up. And since it's looking like the runner ups of all of the Big Six conferences will likely have two losses, they've got a good chance at a BCS Bowl. But I just can't see ANY way that they make it to the Sugar Bowl.

(edited by Battlezone on 21.10.03 1649)
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#14 Posted on 21.10.03 2013.42
Reposted on: 21.10.10 2014.25
Can someone please explain to me how Sagarin and his computer have Virginia Tech ranked at 16???!!!
TheCow
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#15 Posted on 21.10.03 2217.08
Reposted on: 21.10.10 2217.44
Not sure, but it doesn't really matter for now; for Tech, if they beat Miami, they've got an inside track to the Sugar Bowl - and Sagarin's 16 won't make a bit of difference.
Zeruel
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#16 Posted on 22.10.03 0024.15
Reposted on: 22.10.10 0028.00
    Originally posted by Bullitt
    Can someone please explain to me how Sagarin and his computer have Virginia Tech ranked at 16???!!!


His non-BCS formula that includes MOV has VT at 7...

take it for what you will...
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#17 Posted on 22.10.03 1216.52
Reposted on: 22.10.10 1217.15
    Originally posted by Grimis



    BOWL PROJECTIONS BASED ON THE BCS
    Sugar: # 1 Oklahoma vs # 2 Miami
    Rose: # 6 Ohio State vs # 7 Southern Cal
    Orange: # 4 Georgia vs # 5 Florida State
    Fiesta: # 3 Virginia Tech vs # 9 Washington State




Just a minor correction, either Purdue or Michigan St would be the big 10 rep right now. The way the big 10 works, out of conference record means nothing for the big 10 championship, its in conference record. So since Purdue and Michigan St are still undefeated in conference, and Ohio St. is not, than Purdue or Michigan St. would go to the BCS. Thats why both Iowa and Ohio St. are listed as big 10 champs last year.

Also to correct Rikidozan, NIU beat Iowa St. not Iowa.



(edited by Doc_whiskey on 22.10.03 1220)
Grimis
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#18 Posted on 22.10.03 1303.10
Reposted on: 22.10.10 1305.06
    Originally posted by Doc_whiskey
    Just a minor correction, either Purdue or Michigan St would be the big 10 rep right now.

Thanks. My projections were(obviously) baed on rank. If that were the case, I'd project Purdue for the Rose, Ohio State for the Fiesta, and Wazzu as the odd man out.
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#19 Posted on 22.10.03 1321.00
Reposted on: 22.10.10 1321.44
    Originally posted by Grimis
    I'd project Purdue for the Rose, Ohio State for the Fiesta, and Wazzu as the odd man out.


If Ohio State runs the table, then they'll get the Rose Bowl bid, because of their wins over Purdue and Michigan State. If OSU loses another game, I think they're out of the BCS bowl mix, and Purdue is the only Big-10 BCS representative.
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#20 Posted on 22.10.03 1434.24
Reposted on: 22.10.10 1434.53
    Originally posted by Battlezone
      Originally posted by Grimis
      I'd project Purdue for the Rose, Ohio State for the Fiesta, and Wazzu as the odd man out.


    If Ohio State runs the table, then they'll get the Rose Bowl bid, because of their wins over Purdue and Michigan State. If OSU loses another game, I think they're out of the BCS bowl mix, and Purdue is the only Big-10 BCS representative.


Of course, if Michigan runs the table (i.e. wins over Purdue, Michigan St. and Ohio St.) - which is likely - then they would be the Rose Bowl representative - and they're not even in the top 15 BCS rankings. (Or am I smoking something?)

Just an observation...

(edited by Reverend J Shaft on 22.10.03 1536)
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