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The 7 - Current Events & Politics - Granite State/UNH Poll: Dean Lead Bigger Register and log in to post!
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Grimis
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#1 Posted on 15.10.03 1203.09
Reposted on: 15.10.10 1208.16
Maybe Dean's NH lead is greater than we thought, though this poll is the first since Graham dropped out...

Candidate Name Winter 2003 Spring 2003 Summer 2003 Fall 2003
Howard Dean 11% 19% 16% 30%
John Kerry 39 14 18 17
Wesley Clark # 2 3 10
Joe Lieberman 18 11 11 6
John Edwards 2 2 2 5
Richard Gephardt 7 7 3 5
Dennis Kucinich # 1 * 3
Al Sharpton 2 1 1 1
Carol Mosely Braun # 2 1 1
Other 2 1 0 2
Undecided 19 38 30 20


If you check out the PDF, it has a fascinating amount of cross tab data broken out all sorts of demos.
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godking
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#2 Posted on 15.10.03 2301.48
Reposted on: 15.10.10 2301.48
Also of note is this Mclaughlin poll of "Democrats with a history of caucus attendance" in Iowa:

Dean 23
Gephardt 20
Kerry 17
Clark 7
Undecided 22

It's worth pointing out that Gephardt's strength in Iowa isn't in any way proportional to anywhere else, because of the strength of organized labor (which is Gephardt's only real strong point among solid Dem voters) in the state. It's also worth pointing out that polling "Democrats with a history of caucus attendance" will probably cause a hit to Dean and Clark's numbers, as those are the two candidates pulling a lot of support from outside the traditional voters. Could be anywhere from three to five points' difference.

Really, for all the jokes about the horde of Dem candidates, there's only really five candidates who have a shot: Dean, Clark, Kerry, Gephardt, and John Edwards. And those last two are very, very borderline.
Grimis
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#3 Posted on 16.10.03 0604.26
Reposted on: 16.10.10 0604.27
Clark's problem right now is going to be the fact that it's late in the game for retail politics. And that what sells in Iowa.

Given the caucus attendnace disclaimer on the poll, I find it interesting that Dean is ahead. I haven't seen that on any other Iowa polls. Knowing the caucus attendees, I'm surprised Dean is actually in ahead right now.
godking
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#4 Posted on 16.10.03 1137.56
Reposted on: 16.10.10 1138.04
Clark's problem right now is going to be the fact that it's late in the game for retail politics. And that what sells in Iowa.

True nuff. Clark's other problem is that his fundraising and organization started extremely late. Dean, for example, raised fifteen million dollars in the third quarter, which is simply astounding given his lack of large donors. Even Kerry managed six and a half million. Clark got 3.5, which is really impressive for three weeks, but that's tailed off sharply after the quarter ended because they, like everybody else, were pushing to inflate the end-of-quarter number - and frankly, 3.5 million is peanuts compared to the fifteen Dean raised plus the thirteen he already had on hand.

Given the caucus attendnace disclaimer on the poll, I find it interesting that Dean is ahead. I haven't seen that on any other Iowa polls. Knowing the caucus attendees, I'm surprised Dean is actually in ahead right now.

Most of the Iowa polls I've seen over the last three months have had Dean and Gephardt battling for top spot with everybody else a fair step back. It doesn't surprise me too much, because midwestern Dems tend to be fairly centrist, and despite what William Safire wants you to think, Dean is generally a centrist.

I think the big surprise of the poll isn't Dean, but Kerry. That 17 percent is higher than I've seen Kerry pull in Iowa all year by like ten percent. Kerry finally seems to be getting his wheels in gear - only question is if he's done it too late.
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