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Battlezone
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#1 Posted on 12.10.03 0304.08
Reposted on: 12.10.10 0307.41
Well, the dust has settled, and the national title picture just got a LOT clearer. Let's break down the big ones:

Oklahoma/Texas: I didn't see this game (stupid regional ABC), but damn-was that a dismantling or WHAT? Oklahoma is hands down the best team in the country. The D caused six turnovers, Jason White had four TD, and Mack Brown gets closer and closer to John Cooper vs. Michigan territory.

Miami/FSU: So for all the talk out of Tallahassee about the "swagger" being back, they looked REAL anemic against Miami. And somebody needs to tell Chris Rix than Sean Taylor plays for the OTHER TEAM. He had two INTs (one of which were returned for a TD), and had at least two more that he dropped.

Ohio State/Wisconsin: Ugh. Just ugh. I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop,and it hit with a resounding thud. I haven't seen a team so uptight and afraid to play since the John Cooper days. Credit to Wisconsin, though, as they ran the ball down the Bucks' throats and even managed to overcome the un-Buckeye-like cheap play of Robert Reynolds slapping a chockhold on Jim Sorgi. Player of the game: The streaker at the end of the game.

When it was all said and done, 9 of the Top 15 had lost. It should make for an interesting Sunday morning as the rankings are released. I'll take a stab:

1. Oklahoma
2. Miami
3. Virginia Tech
4. USC
5. Georgia
6. Florida State
7. Ohio State
8. Washington State
9. Iowa
10. Arkansas

That's just a wild stab in the dark, but outside of moving everyone who *didn't* lose up in the rankings, I can't make head or tail out of it. And I don't see either FSU or OSU dropping that far, just because so many teams below them lost. Potential BCS problem: TCU and Northern Illinois should be close to the Top 10. They've been able to shake off one non-BCS undefeated team, but TWO? That might be a problem that even the NCAA can ignore. Things should get interesting, as the first BCS numbers should be out soon...

Also, it turns out that Boston College is headed to the ACC after all, which has got to put the final nail in the Big East's coffin, unless they start raiding other conferences. Assuming the NCAA will replace the Big East in the next BCS agreement, how about replacing the Big East with the MAC? They've shown they can play with the big boys, and besides, they're more of a football power conference than the Big East right now.
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Firecracker
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#2 Posted on 13.10.03 1205.34
Reposted on: 13.10.10 1206.21
AP Poll this week:

1. Oklahoma
2. Miami
3. Virginia Tech
4. Georgia
5. USC
6. Washington St.
7. Florida St.
8. Ohio St.
9. Iowa
10. LSU

Northern Illinois climbed up to #12, and TCU is #16. No real surprises in the new poll. UM-VT in a couple weeks is going to be HUGE.
Battlezone
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#3 Posted on 13.10.03 1220.51
Reposted on: 13.10.10 1222.25
And the ESPN/Coaches poll:

1. Oklahoma (58)
2. Miami (5)
3. Virginia Tech
4. USC  
5. Georgia  
6. Washington State  
7. Florida State  
8. Ohio State  
9. Iowa  
10. LSU  

Flies in the ointment:
13. TCU (6-0)
16. Northern Illinois (6-0)

You know, for all the hand-wringing around here in Seattle about Washington State "Couging" it up by losing to Notre Dame, they seem to be in a pretty good position to possibly sneak back into the Sugar Bowl mix.

Zeruel
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#4 Posted on 13.10.03 1641.29
Reposted on: 13.10.10 1642.10
Colley Matrix:
1. OKLAHOMA
2. MIAMI
3. VIRGINIA TECH
4. NORTHERN ILL
5. GEORGIA
6. FLORIDA ST
7. OHIO ST
8. IOWA
9. TCU
10. AIR FORCE

Sagarin BCS:
1 Miami-Florida
2 Oklahoma
3 Northern Illinois
4 Iowa
5 Georgia
6 Miami-Ohio
7 Southern Cal
8 Florida St.
9 TCU
10 Washington St.

Sagarin w/ MOV:
1 Oklahoma
2 Miami-Florida
3 Florida St.
4 Georgia
5 Southern Cal
6 Virginia Tech
7 Iowa
8 Arkansas
9 Washington St.
10 LSU

34 Northern Illinois
44 TCU
Battlezone
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#5 Posted on 13.10.03 1922.45
Reposted on: 13.10.10 1926.47
    Originally posted by rikidozan
    Colley Matrix:
    6 Miami-Ohio



Wait, that's got to be a misprint. How did Miami of Ohio get ranked THAT high? I mean, they haven't beaten ANYBODY.

Here's Brad Edward's (sports.espn.go.com) projected BCS Standings:

1. Oklahoma
2. Miami
3. Georgia
4. Virginia Tech
5. USC
6. Florida State
7. Ohio State
8. Iowa
9. Washington State
10. Arkansas
11. Northern Illinois
12. Wisconsin

Considering VT/Miami, USC/WSU and OSU/Iowa (and potentially GA/Arkansas in the SEC Championship) have yet to play, Northern Illinois has a good shot at being in the top 6 and go to a BCS bowl if they run the table.
Zeruel
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#6 Posted on 13.10.03 2220.29
Reposted on: 13.10.10 2222.44
    Originally posted by Battlezone
      Originally posted by rikidozan
      Colley Matrix:
      6 Miami-Ohio



    Wait, that's got to be a misprint. How did Miami of Ohio get ranked THAT high? I mean, they haven't beaten ANYBODY.


It is a misprint, but your misprint.

Sagarin ranked them 6th, not the Matrix.

look for yourself
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt03.htm
Remember, the BCS rankings are on the right, in orange/red

And that's on his BCS rankings, i.e. if the BCS came out today, they'd have a 6...and lowest rank is droped, so that's a pretty good vote of confidence.


Ok, who did Miami-Ohio play?
LOST @ Iowa (5-1)
WON @ Northwestern (3-4)
WON @ Colorado St. (4-3)
WON Cincinnati (3-3)
WON Akron (4-3)
WON Buffalo (0-7)

So, they are 5-1 and their opponents are a combined 19-21
I bet that by playing Iowa and Northwestern, they will get a SOS bump because of the big ten, and because they are in the MAC, their wins over ACC teams connect them there for more SOS bumps...

But really, 1 more loss and they're gone from the top 15, hell in his REAL formula, Miami-OH is ranked 15th, and that's above undefeated TCU and NIU.



Sagarin uses the ELO system that uses a base number of points awarded for a win, and the exact amount deducted for a loss.
It is weighted for the respective raitings.
If a team, lets say, has a 100 raiting is playing another 100 team, the winner gets, lets say 10 points, and the loser loses 10

If the winning team was a 200, and losing a 100, then the raitings would be put into a formula and lets say that because they defeated an inferior team, they get 3, but the 100 team only loses 3.

Reverse that and if the 100 beat the 200 maybe the formula would give the 100 team 17 points and take 17 from the 200 team.

The formula is upto the programmer, but the theory is, winning and losing teams gain and lose the exact same amount. If you get an averge rating of the teams, at the end of the season, it should equal the average from week 1.

For one team to gain, another has to lose the same amount.

Some systems don't floor the formulas, meaning that if you were like 12-0 and beat a 0-12, you could actually lose points for winning, because they were so inferior. (Some argue that not flooring the points takes into account the SOS)


(edited by rikidozan on 13.10.03 2331)
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