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The 7 - Football - Riddle me this...
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Battlezone
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#1 Posted on 7.10.03 1144.15
Reposted on: 7.10.10 1144.28
The latest rankings have Miami still holding the #2 spot in both polls, despite looking terrible and barely squeaking by a 1-4 West Virginia team.

I'm sure you can figure out where I'm going with this.

Ohio State had a close win against San Diego State, and dropped. They had a close 3OT win against a ranked NC State team and dropped. Both of those teams are currently sitting at .500, which last I checked, is better than 1-4.

How is it that Ohio State dropped twice after close wins, and Miami doesn't? What the hell is going on here?
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Grimis
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#2 Posted on 7.10.03 1152.58
Reposted on: 7.10.10 1153.09
Good question, but it won't matter after Saturday. If Miami beats Florida State they deserve it, if they don't, they'll drop.

I don't think Ohio State or Miami really deserve to be # 2 right now. If I had to pick one team to take that slot and play Oklahoma(assuming they beat Nebraska) in the title game it would be Arkansas or LSU...
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#3 Posted on 7.10.03 1235.57
Reposted on: 7.10.10 1236.31
Easy...which potential matchup holds more widespread appeal? Oklahoma vs. Miami or Oklahoma vs. Arkansas? The polls will always favour the high profile programs as long as it's feasible to do so.
smarkymcsmart
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#4 Posted on 7.10.03 1259.49
Reposted on: 7.10.10 1301.08
The rankings all season have been questionable. Fitting in with Ohio State's ranking is the fact that everyone and their grandmother couldn't wait to push USC up the list, even after meaningless wins like Hawaii, but the Trojans fixed that on their own. There's no reason they should have been ahead of Ohio, and with the streak OSU has been on I don't see close games being any reason to drop them. But if so, it should stay consistant when Miami does the same thing. If they didn't want to move Ohio State up on a bye week, leapfrog Va. Tech over both of them.

I doubt Oklahoma will make the national championship, they'll probably choke somewhere in the Big 12 schedule like they have the past few years. They should make the Big 12 title game, though. This week's game with Texas looks to be their only real test in that regard, and even that isn't much to worry about. The Longhorns barely squeaked by Kansas State, blowing a 17-3 lead at halftime to end up losing 20-17 until a last minute score saved it. They won't have the same chance with OU.

Nebraska may have a good shot at the North, with Colorado being a shell of it's former self. But by the time Nebraska gets to Austin, the Longhorns will be desperate to stay alive. That should be a fight. And Nebraska still has KSU after that game, which should be a similar fight and will probably be where the North is decided. But I'd love to see Baylor and Kansas sneak past everybody and make the title game.
Zeruel
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#5 Posted on 7.10.03 1305.21
Reposted on: 7.10.10 1308.13
    Originally posted by Battlezone
    The latest rankings have Miami still holding the #2 spot in both polls, despite looking terrible and barely squeaking by a 1-4 West Virginia team.

    I'm sure you can figure out where I'm going with this.

    Ohio State had a close win against San Diego State, and dropped. They had a close 3OT win against a ranked NC State team and dropped. Both of those teams are currently sitting at .500, which last I checked, is better than 1-4.

    How is it that Ohio State dropped twice after close wins, and Miami doesn't? What the hell is going on here?


This is why I don't follow the human polls anymore. Wes Colley's Matrix has:
1. ARKANSAS
2. OHIO ST
3. OKLAHOMA
4. NEBRASKA
5. FLORIDA ST
6. VIRGINIA TECH
7. MINNESOTA
8. NORTHERN ILL
9. MIAMI
10. IOWA

full list at his site http://64.46.103.24/

Sagarin has:
Arkansas 1
Oklahoma 2
Miami-Florida 3
Florida State 4
Ohio St. 5
LSU 6
Nebraska 7
Georgia 8
Northern Ill. 9
Washington State 10

get the poop here http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt03.htm

I respect and follow their computer polls than the other 5, and I swear the pollers at the NY Times are on acid when they do their list.

(edited by rikidozan on 7.10.03 1409)
whatever
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#6 Posted on 8.10.03 0629.52
Reposted on: 8.10.10 0631.54
That matrix that has NIU *ahead* of Miami is insane. I don't think a team that is challenged by Ohio University can realistically hold a candle to the Hurricanes.

(However, any ranking that puts OSU at #2 can't be half bad! )

Offhand, I think the Sagarin ratings best reflect the current state of the rankings.
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#7 Posted on 8.10.03 0854.24
Reposted on: 8.10.10 0855.51
From SI.com's Stewart Mandel, who answered almost exactly this question this week:

    Originally posted by Stewart Mandel
    Why is it that Ohio State wins in overtime against 22nd-ranked N.C. State and falls in the polls, then the Buckeyes have a close game against Bowling Green, which knocked off Purdue, and fall again in the polls? Now Miami has a close call against an unranked West Virginia team and the Hurricanes remain at the No. 2 spot. What gives?
    -- Jason, Dallas

    Because there is a massive, worldwide conspiracy -- involving both media and coaches and reaching all the way to the Oval Office -- to make sure the Buckeyes don't get a chance to defend their championship.

    That is what you wanted to hear, isn't it?


The rest of the article can be found here. (sportsillustrated.cnn.com)

I do so love a trite response



Edit: Table Breakage is BAD, people. -Jag

(edited by Jaguar on 8.10.03 1306)
Grimis
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#8 Posted on 8.10.03 0903.56
Reposted on: 8.10.10 0904.42
    Originally posted by whatever
    That matrix that has NIU *ahead* of Miami is insane. I don't think a team that is challenged by Ohio University can realistically hold a candle to the Hurricanes.

Um...Miami was challenged by West Virginia. Incidentally, let's compar who Miami has beaten with who NIU has beaten:

Miami: La. Tech, Florida, East Carolina, Boston College, West Virginia

Northern Ill: Maryland, Tenn. Tech, Alabama, Iowa State, Ohio

The schedules are comparable and NIU may be slightly ahead given how Florida has died and Maryland has surged.

Regardless, NIU won't make the BCS games anyway, though if they run the table they probably should.
JayJayDean
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#9 Posted on 8.10.03 0910.34
Reposted on: 8.10.10 0911.57
This is why we need PLAYOFFS. There are never arguments like this about the college basketball polls.
Battlezone
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#10 Posted on 8.10.03 1108.19
Reposted on: 8.10.10 1116.27

    Because there is a massive, worldwide conspiracy -- involving both media and coaches and reaching all the way to the Oval Office -- to make sure the Buckeyes don't get a chance to defend their championship.

    That is what you wanted to hear, isn't it?


Hey, works for me. At least it's out in the open now....


    This is why we need PLAYOFFS. There are never arguments like this about the college basketball polls.


Sure there is. Watch next March, when an underachieving, .500 team like North Carolina gets in the tournament over a more deserving team from a "mid major" conference. Even if there were playoffs, a team like NIU probably wouldn't get in if they didn't win the MAC. So how is that situation any different than the basketball one?
whatever
Lap cheong
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#11 Posted on 8.10.03 1210.58
Reposted on: 8.10.10 1211.00
    Originally posted by Grimis
    Um...Miami was challenged by West Virginia.


I knew someone would bring that up. Look, Ohio University is nowhere near the talent of West Virginia.

West Virginia: 1-4 this year, but 9-4 in 2002 and 3-8 in 2001.

Ohio University: 1-4 this year, 4-8 in 2002, and 1-10 in 2001.

And if you want to compare schedules, here you go:

Miami's scores this year: 48-9, 38-33, 38-3, 33-14, and 22-20.
Miami average score: 36-16.

Northern Illinois' scores this year: 20-13, 42-17, 19-16, 24-16, and 30-23.
Northern Illinois average score: 27-17.

Miami is winning their games handily compared to NIU, which (aside from Tenn. Tech) is pretty much scraping by their opponents.

Basically, you're nuts.
Zeruel
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#12 Posted on 8.10.03 1221.15
Reposted on: 8.10.10 1228.21
    Originally posted by whatever
    That matrix that has NIU *ahead* of Miami is insane. I don't think a team that is challenged by Ohio University can realistically hold a candle to the Hurricanes.

    (However, any ranking that puts OSU at #2 can't be half bad! )

    Offhand, I think the Sagarin ratings best reflect the current state of the rankings.


The Colley Matrix rates teams based on their past performance and ranks them accordingly. It's doesn't mean that NIU is better than Miami, just that they have done more to be ranked higher.

Sagarin's are used to as #1 should beat everybody, #2 is an underdog just to #1...etc.
His rankings are a head to head type thing and to his BCS formula I posted, he says that Arkansas can beat anybody.

I don't know about Sagarin, but Colley uses SOS, so his raitings are a pretty dynamic the first have of the season, but get less and less relevant towards the end. Colley even posts his method to making his formula (it's pure math) and it's an interesting read.
Grimis
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#13 Posted on 8.10.03 1230.04
Reposted on: 8.10.10 1232.24
    Originally posted by whatever
    Miami is winning their games handily compared to NIU, which (aside from Tenn. Tech) is pretty much scraping by their opponents.

Actually, you ignored the strength of schedule aspect. NIU has played better teams this year on average than Miami has, hence your score discrepancy.

Look, I'm not saying NIU would beat Miami head on. I'm just saying they deserve the high ranking that they have. Any computerized/subjective ranking system comparison between the two will be pointless after the FSU game anyway, as Miami's SoS will be higher regardless, and if they lose it won't matter.
whatever
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#14 Posted on 8.10.03 1248.22
Reposted on: 8.10.10 1248.44
Grimis - that's all I was saying, too. I *like* NIU and the MAC, but there's no way I think they could beat Miami head-to-head either. That's why I thought the matrix was nuts - Miami should be at least above NIU. And just for the record, I *hate* Miami.

Otherwise though, this is a pretty interesting method for ranking. I knew about the Sagarin polls, but I hadn't seen the Colley matrix before. Thanks for the ranking details, rikidozan.
JayJayDean
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#15 Posted on 8.10.03 1337.41
Reposted on: 8.10.10 1337.52
    Originally posted by Battlezone

      This is why we need PLAYOFFS. There are never arguments like this about the college basketball polls.


    Sure there is. Watch next March, when an underachieving, .500 team like North Carolina gets in the tournament over a more deserving team from a "mid major" conference. Even if there were playoffs, a team like NIU probably wouldn't get in if they didn't win the MAC. So how is that situation any different than the basketball one?


My point is that is a different argument. What I said was that no one argues about the polls in basketball because they are irrelevant with the tournament. No on cares in December or January or February who is ranked #4 or #5. Sure, people argue about who is on the bubble and all that come tourney time, which they wouldn't have to do if they used more of a tangible system to pick and seed the teams (like one you could follow during the season to see what a team was) but that is another discussion for another day.

I think NIU should be able to go into the season with a chance to win the national championship like everybody else, and that if they win the MAC they should be in the tournament. I already put my thoughts on the playoffs in this thread: http://wienerboard.com/thread.php/id=14489&page=0.
Zeruel
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#16 Posted on 8.10.03 1554.57
Reposted on: 8.10.10 1556.10
    Originally posted by whatever
    Otherwise though, this is a pretty interesting method for ranking. I knew about the Sagarin polls, but I hadn't seen the Colley matrix before. Thanks for the ranking details, rikidozan.


That's why I follow those two. Colley with who has accomplished the most, and Sagarin's who could beat who. It has helped with a few friendly bets

And for those who didn't check out Sagarin's page, he has 2 rankings, his formula, and the BCS-Friendly formula (no MOV)

his legendary formula has:


1 Oklahoma
2 Florida St.
3 Miami-Florida
4 Arkansas
5 LSU
6 Georgia
7 Southern Cal
8 Nebraska
9 Texas
10 Washington St.
Full list at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt03.htm

Spaceman Spiff
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#17 Posted on 9.10.03 1519.44
Reposted on: 9.10.10 1519.45
Ohio State should just be thankful they got that bogus call in the Fiesta Bowl.
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#18 Posted on 9.10.03 1523.40
Reposted on: 9.10.10 1523.50

Va. Tech has to be the 2nd best team in the nation. They have a damn good offense ... I look for them and the Sooners to square off for the national title.

Anybody but FSU ... God I hope Miami pummels them into oblivion ...
whatever
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#19 Posted on 10.10.03 1307.31
Reposted on: 10.10.10 1312.14
    Originally posted by Spaceman Spiff
    Ohio State should just be thankful they got that bogus call in the Fiesta Bowl.


Waah, waah, waah. They've reviewed that play over and over again and said they made the right call. Get over it.
Spaceman Spiff
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#20 Posted on 10.10.03 2059.35
Reposted on: 10.10.10 2059.37
Yeah, the call was probably correct, but the refs had called a pretty loose game all night. Calling a flag on that play seemed inconsistent with how they called the rest of the game. That, and:

...ref waits...

...ref waits...

...ref thinks about play...

...ref replays play in his head...

...ref finally throws flag.

If it was such a obvious penalty, throw the flag right away. Don't go over the play again in your head, because there's a chance you might not remember it perfectly.
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