The W
Views: 120021454
Main | FAQ | Search: Y! / G | Color chart | Log in for more!
21.1.10 1353
The 7 - Current Events & Politics - Can George do it?
This thread has 1 referral leading to it
Register and log in to post!
(1964 newer) Next thread | Previous thread
User
Post (9 total)
Lexus
Bierwurst
Level: 87

Posts: 244/1943
EXP: 6350729
For next: 42070

Since: 2.1.02
From: Stafford, VA

Since last post: 15 days
Last activity: 2 days
AIM:  
#1 Posted on 7.4.03 1354.04
Reposted on: 7.4.10 1354.05
On the eve of what seems to be a highly successful war in Iraq, and debates already happening on behalf of the Democratic party to find their man, what would you consider George W. Bush's odds are as to winning re-election?
Promote this thread!
MoeGates
Andouille
Level: 92

Posts: 1213/2211
EXP: 7705806
For next: 51161

Since: 6.1.02
From: Brooklyn, NY

Since last post: 21 hours
Last activity: 15 hours
#2 Posted on 7.4.03 1400.16
Reposted on: 7.4.10 1401.36
Depends on how long the deal for Karl Rove's soul was for.
redsoxnation
Scrapple
Level: 156

Posts: 2261/7534
EXP: 47586013
For next: 903715

Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 1300 days
Last activity: 1300 days
#3 Posted on 7.4.03 1404.14
Reposted on: 7.4.10 1404.50
Its 19 months out, so who knows what happens. However, handicapping the field right now, Bush would have to be considered a strong favorite. The Democratic Party looks like they are going to have a street fight for a primary (and remember all non affiliated (coughRepublicancough) voters: Al Sharpton for President in the Democratic Primary). If this war continues to go successfully and everything Bush said turns out to be true, the peace wing of the Democratic Party will be badly damaged, but considering their high percentage in a Democratic Primary, they could still elect a peace candidate like Dean to sacrafice in the general election.

Odds on Winning Presidency [as of now](Party Nomination Odds in Italics).

Republican

Bush: 4-5 (1-20)

Democratic

Dean: 23-1 (8-1)

Kerry: 6-1 (3-1)

Lieberman: 7-1 (4-1)

Gephardt: 19-1 (10-1)

Sharpton: 1,000-1 (75-1)

Mosely-Braun: 500,000-1 (100,000-1)

Grimis
Scrapple
Level: 127

Posts: 1240/4700
EXP: 23475927
For next: 250704

Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 2090 days
Last activity: 545 days
#4 Posted on 7.4.03 1412.28
Reposted on: 7.4.10 1414.46
My odds, set up like RSN's

GOP
Bush: 2-5 (1-40)

Dems
Dean: 25-1 (6-1; the anti-war stuff plays better than you'd think)
Kerry: 15-1 (8-1; and getting worse with the "regime change" stuff)
Lieberman: 8-1 (4-1)
Gephardt: 11-1 (6-1)
Sharpton: 25,000-1 (1,000-1)
Braun: 1 million-1 (100,000-1)
The Field(everyone else): 25-1 (15-1)
Downtown Bookie
Morcilla
Level: 54

Posts: 173/649
EXP: 1215279
For next: 18598

Since: 7.4.02
From: The Inner City, Now Living In The Country

Since last post: 426 days
Last activity: 179 days
#5 Posted on 7.4.03 1451.14
Reposted on: 7.4.10 1458.29

    Originally posted by Lexus
    On the eve of what seems to be a highly successful war in Iraq, and debates already happening on behalf of the Democratic party to find their man, what would you consider George W. Bush's odds are as to winning re-election?


Remember your history. Back in 1991, after the first Gulf War, Bush Sr.'s approval rating with the American people was over 90%. However, by the time the election came around in November of 1992, Bush could only garner fewer than 38% of the popular vote.

The bottom line: Glory is fleeting; approval ratings a year and a half before an election are meaningless. Tell me the condition of the U.S. economy in Autumn 2004 and I'll tell you the odds of Bush Jr. winning a second term.
Gavintzu
Summer sausage
Level: 46

Posts: 271/443
EXP: 691372
For next: 20407

Since: 2.1.02
From: Calgary ... Alberta Canada

Since last post: 3687 days
Last activity: 3687 days
#6 Posted on 7.4.03 1605.16
Reposted on: 7.4.10 1612.03
Downtown Bookie sez:

    Remember your history. Back in 1991, after the first Gulf War, Bush Sr.'s approval rating with the American people was over 90%. However, by the time the election came around in November of 1992, Bush could only garner fewer than 38% of the popular vote.


Very good point. And also remember that approval ratings for sitting presidents always seem to be higher than the votes they pull in. I remember a poll done after Dubya's first 100 days gave him 55% ... it seems a little doubtful that millions and millions of Gore and Nader voters completely changed their minds about Bush after only three months on the job.

2000 was of course an incredibly close race ... if the economy continues to shed thousands of jobs a day, and if the Dems nominate someone competent and "presidential", 2004 could be just as close.


Grimis
Scrapple
Level: 127

Posts: 1246/4700
EXP: 23475927
For next: 250704

Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 2090 days
Last activity: 545 days
#7 Posted on 7.4.03 1933.16
Reposted on: 7.4.10 1934.14

    Originally posted by Gavintzu
    and if the Dems nominate someone competenent and "presidential"

That's quite an if...I mean when was the last time they did that, Kennedy?
spf
Scrapple
Level: 136

Posts: 1810/5410
EXP: 29504497
For next: 592495

Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

Since last post: 447 days
Last activity: 271 days
AIM:  
#8 Posted on 7.4.03 2259.28
Reposted on: 7.4.10 2300.17
Well Clinton was able to pull it off well enough to be a two-termer ;)
Big Bad
Scrapple
Level: 152

Posts: 1036/7003
EXP: 43448168
For next: 853594

Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 14 hours
#9 Posted on 8.4.03 0119.27
Reposted on: 8.4.10 0120.20
I thought Kerry dropped out because he has cancer.
And what about Wesley Clark? Is he still in the race?

(edited by Big Bad on 8.4.03 0219)
ALL ORIGINAL POSTS IN THIS THREAD ARE NOW AVAILABLE
Thread ahead: Is this the Smoking Gun?
Next thread: Middle Ages were warmer than today
Previous thread: Clarence Thomas and I AGREE?!
(1964 newer) Next thread | Previous thread
The 7 - Current Events & Politics - Can George do it?Register and log in to post!

The W™ message board - 7 year recycle

ZimBoard
©2001-2015 Brothers Zim
This old hunk of junk rendered your page in 0.42 seconds.