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The 7 - Current Events & Politics - Can George do it?
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Lexus
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#1 Posted on 7.4.03 1354.04
Reposted on: 7.4.10 1354.05
On the eve of what seems to be a highly successful war in Iraq, and debates already happening on behalf of the Democratic party to find their man, what would you consider George W. Bush's odds are as to winning re-election?
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MoeGates
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#2 Posted on 7.4.03 1400.16
Reposted on: 7.4.10 1401.36
Depends on how long the deal for Karl Rove's soul was for.
redsoxnation
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#3 Posted on 7.4.03 1404.14
Reposted on: 7.4.10 1404.50
Its 19 months out, so who knows what happens. However, handicapping the field right now, Bush would have to be considered a strong favorite. The Democratic Party looks like they are going to have a street fight for a primary (and remember all non affiliated (coughRepublicancough) voters: Al Sharpton for President in the Democratic Primary). If this war continues to go successfully and everything Bush said turns out to be true, the peace wing of the Democratic Party will be badly damaged, but considering their high percentage in a Democratic Primary, they could still elect a peace candidate like Dean to sacrafice in the general election.

Odds on Winning Presidency [as of now](Party Nomination Odds in Italics).

Republican

Bush: 4-5 (1-20)

Democratic

Dean: 23-1 (8-1)

Kerry: 6-1 (3-1)

Lieberman: 7-1 (4-1)

Gephardt: 19-1 (10-1)

Sharpton: 1,000-1 (75-1)

Mosely-Braun: 500,000-1 (100,000-1)

Grimis
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#4 Posted on 7.4.03 1412.28
Reposted on: 7.4.10 1414.46
My odds, set up like RSN's

GOP
Bush: 2-5 (1-40)

Dems
Dean: 25-1 (6-1; the anti-war stuff plays better than you'd think)
Kerry: 15-1 (8-1; and getting worse with the "regime change" stuff)
Lieberman: 8-1 (4-1)
Gephardt: 11-1 (6-1)
Sharpton: 25,000-1 (1,000-1)
Braun: 1 million-1 (100,000-1)
The Field(everyone else): 25-1 (15-1)
Downtown Bookie
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#5 Posted on 7.4.03 1451.14
Reposted on: 7.4.10 1458.29

    Originally posted by Lexus
    On the eve of what seems to be a highly successful war in Iraq, and debates already happening on behalf of the Democratic party to find their man, what would you consider George W. Bush's odds are as to winning re-election?


Remember your history. Back in 1991, after the first Gulf War, Bush Sr.'s approval rating with the American people was over 90%. However, by the time the election came around in November of 1992, Bush could only garner fewer than 38% of the popular vote.

The bottom line: Glory is fleeting; approval ratings a year and a half before an election are meaningless. Tell me the condition of the U.S. economy in Autumn 2004 and I'll tell you the odds of Bush Jr. winning a second term.
Gavintzu
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#6 Posted on 7.4.03 1605.16
Reposted on: 7.4.10 1612.03
Downtown Bookie sez:

    Remember your history. Back in 1991, after the first Gulf War, Bush Sr.'s approval rating with the American people was over 90%. However, by the time the election came around in November of 1992, Bush could only garner fewer than 38% of the popular vote.


Very good point. And also remember that approval ratings for sitting presidents always seem to be higher than the votes they pull in. I remember a poll done after Dubya's first 100 days gave him 55% ... it seems a little doubtful that millions and millions of Gore and Nader voters completely changed their minds about Bush after only three months on the job.

2000 was of course an incredibly close race ... if the economy continues to shed thousands of jobs a day, and if the Dems nominate someone competent and "presidential", 2004 could be just as close.


Grimis
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#7 Posted on 7.4.03 1933.16
Reposted on: 7.4.10 1934.14

    Originally posted by Gavintzu
    and if the Dems nominate someone competenent and "presidential"

That's quite an if...I mean when was the last time they did that, Kennedy?
spf
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#8 Posted on 7.4.03 2259.28
Reposted on: 7.4.10 2300.17
Well Clinton was able to pull it off well enough to be a two-termer ;)
Big Bad
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#9 Posted on 8.4.03 0119.27
Reposted on: 8.4.10 0120.20
I thought Kerry dropped out because he has cancer.
And what about Wesley Clark? Is he still in the race?

(edited by Big Bad on 8.4.03 0219)
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