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The 7 - Football - NCAA Div I-A Week 12 BCS Bowl Projections
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Zeruel
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#1 Posted on 15.11.04 1325.29
Reposted on: 15.11.11 1325.43
ACC (top 4): Last 5 conf champs, 1999-2000: FSU (National Champs, 1999), 2001: Maryland, 2002-2003: FSU
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1Virginia Tech4-17-23 conf games left; plays MD, Virginia, Miami
2Florida State6-28-2Done with conference play. Needs help to even claim a share of the ACC title
3tVirginia4-27-22 conf games left; plays VT and GT
3tMiami, FL4-27-22 conf games left; plays Wake and Virginia

Big XII: Last 5 conf champs, 1999: Nebraska (North), 2000: Oklahoma (South) (National Champs), 2001: Colorado (North), 2002: Oklahoma (South), 2003: Kansas State (North)
North (top 4):
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1Iowa State3-35-42 conf games left; plays Kansas State, Missouri
2tColorado3-46-41 conf game left; plays Nebraska
2tNebraska3-45-51 conf games left; plays Colorado
4Missouri2-44-52 conf games left; plays Kansas, Iowa State

South (top 2):
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1Oklahoma7-010-0Clinched Big XII South title
2Texas6-19-1

Big East (top 4): Last 5 conf champs, 1999: VT, 2000-2002: Miami, FL (National Champs, 2001), 2003: WV and Miami, FL
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1West Virginia4-18-2****Clinches at least share of title with win over Pitt
2Boston College3-17-22 conf games left; plays Temple, Syracuse
3tPittsburgh3-26-31 conf game left; plays WV
3tSyracuse3-25-51 conf game left; plays BC

Big Ten (top 3): Last 5 conf champs, 1999: Wisconsin, 2000 (tie): Michigan and Northwestern and Purdue, 2001: Illinois, 2002 (tie): Iowa and Ohio State (National Champs), 2003: Michigan
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1Michigan7-09-1****Clinched at least a share of the Big Ten title. 1 conf game left; plays OSU
2Wisconsin6-19-11 conf game left; plays Iowa
3Iowa6-18-21 conf game left; plays Wisconsin

Pac-10 (top 2): Last 5 conf champs, 1999: Standford, 2000 (tie): Oregon and Oregon State and Washington, 2001: Oregon, 2002 (tie): USC and Washington State, 2003: USC (Co-National Champs)
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1USC7-010-0****Clinched Pac-10 Title; plays UCLA
2California6-18-11 conf game left; plays Stanford

SEC: Last 5 conf champs, 1999: Alabama (West), 2000: Florida (East), 2001: LSU (West), 2002: Georgia (East), 2003: LSU (west) (Co-National Champs)
East (top 2):
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1Tennessee5-17-2Clinches Div title by winning out. 2 conf games left; plays Vandy, Kentucky
2Georgia6-28-2Done with conf play

West (top 2):
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1Auburn7-010-0****Clinched SEC West title
2LSU4-27-2

BCS Top 6
1. USC (Pac-10 Champion)
2. Oklahoma (Big XII leader)
3. Auburn (SEC leader)
4. Cal (Pac-10)
5. Texas (Big XII)
6. Utah (Mountain West Champion)

Other Conference Leaders
ACC: Virginia Tech (#15 BCS)
Big East: WV (#23 BCS)
Big Ten: Michigan (BCS #7)

BCS Bowl Projections
Orange (BCS #1 vs BCS #2): USC (Pac-10 leader) vs Oklahoma (Big XII leader)
Sugar (SEC vs At-large): Auburn (SEC Leader) vs Utah (Mountain West leader, at-large)
Fiesta (Big XII vs At-large): WV (Big East Leader, at-large) vs Virginia (ACC leader, at-large)*They lost their champ to the BCS #2 slot, they choose second from the at-large pool)
Rose (Big Ten Champ vs Pac-10 Champ): Michigan (Big Ten leader) vs Cal (Pac-10 at-large) *They lost their champ to the BCS #1 slot, they choose first from at-large pool)

Texas (not Utah) is stood up at the alter.

(edited by Zeruel on 15.11.04 1746)
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Grimis
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#2 Posted on 15.11.04 1345.36
Reposted on: 15.11.11 1347.12
    Originally posted by Zeruel
    Utah is stood up at the alter.
Not if they stay in the top 6. Which is actually pretty likely since the likelihood of the top 5 teams surviving unscathed AND being leapfrogged by Michigan is remote.

Under that scenario, Texas misses the BCS, and Utah goes to the Fiesta Bowl.

At least it's good to know that the winner of the Big XII North will be bowl eligible, by default. And watch, that will be the conference title game where Iowa State pulls off the major upset that would knock somebody else out of the BCS....
Zeruel
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#3 Posted on 15.11.04 1507.30
Reposted on: 15.11.11 1508.35
#2 Finish in the top six of the BCS standings as an independent team or team from a non-BCS conference. If a team besided Notre Dame qualifies in this manner, then the Irish would also automatically qualify by winning 9 non-exempt games or finishing in the top 10 in the BCS standings.

#3 Be the highest rated at-large team remaining and finish either third or fourth in the BCS rankings. Only one team can automatically qualify under this provision.

Yup, I got things out of order again. Fixed!

BCS Bowl Projections
Orange (BCS #1 vs BCS #2): USC (Pac-10 leader) vs Oklahoma (Big XII leader)
Sugar (SEC vs At-large): Auburn (SEC Leader) vs Utah (Mountain West leader, at-large)
Fiesta (Big XII vs At-large): WV (Big East Leader, at-large) vs Virginia (ACC leader, at-large)*They lost their champ to the BCS #2 slot, they choose second from the at-large pool)
Rose (Big Ten Champ vs Pac-10 Champ): Michigan (Big Ten leader) vs Cal (Pac-10 at-large) *They lost their champ to the BCS #1 slot, they choose first from at-large pool)

Texas (not Utah) is stood up at the alter.

(edited by Zeruel on 15.11.04 1608)
TheCow
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#4 Posted on 15.11.04 1547.37
Reposted on: 15.11.11 1547.37
By the way, I think that Tennessee only has to go 1-1 in SEC East play the rest of the year; they beat Georgia head-to-head, so they'd get the tiebreaker if it came down to that.
Zeruel
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#5 Posted on 15.11.04 1552.08
Reposted on: 15.11.11 1552.46
I just wanted to stay on the safe side with TN. I don't know all the tie-breakers for the different Confs. They're all different.

I only gave USC the Pac-10 title because ESPN.com did.
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#6 Posted on 15.11.04 1631.49
Reposted on: 15.11.11 1631.50
    Originally posted by Zeruel
    I only gave USC the Pac-10 title because ESPN.com did.


They beat Cal so they have the tiebreaker.
redsoxnation
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#7 Posted on 15.11.04 1735.10
Reposted on: 15.11.11 1737.50
Right now, BC has the inside track on the Big East slot, as they have the head-to-head win over West Virginia and only play Temple and Syracuse(non-dome). That'll put them in the Fiesta against Utah, and if BC is going to go to a BCS Bowl, at least it will be a bowl game that will be looked upon as a joke, and Utah will have home-field because they will go down and flood Sun Devil Stadium.
As for the ACC Title, it will be Miami, as I have zero faith in Virginia Tech knocking them off with the conference title on the line. That will allow for a Miami vs. Auburn Sugar Bowl (should nothing change involving the top 2 BCS spots). And, Texas gets left on the outside looking in.
Mr. Boffo
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#8 Posted on 15.11.04 1739.27
Reposted on: 15.11.11 1742.52
I figured out tie-breakers for the ACC and the Big East in a thread over at footballoutsiders.com . I'll post the summaries here, since I doubt anyone wants to see all the particulars. Just in case, you can check it out yourself at http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=1981&cat=1#comment-40599 . EDIT: Link doesn't totally work. Scroll down to comments 48 and 50.

ACC
Va Tech & Miami both control their own destiny. Whoever wins their matchup Dec. 4th will be in the driverís seat, so long as they win out. Tech can win the conference outright, Miami has most tie-breakers.
Fl Stateís only chances are to be in a two-way-tie with Virginia, or win outright.
Virginia, as I said earlier, can only win if theyíre the highest ranked team, and involved in a three-way-tie with Fl State & Va Tech.
If there is a tie or a three-way-tie involving (among others) Fl State & Va Tech, the school highest in the BCS ranking gets the bid. This may also come into play if the winning team isnít the highest ranked BCS team in the ACC. But letís not worry about that, please?

Big East
BC controls their own destiny. They win the tie-break with WV if they win all their games.
WV needs to finish alone at 5-1 to win the conference.
Pitt actually isnít totally hopeless yet. They have three possibilites:
1. Pitt beats WV, BC loses to Temple, and BC beats Syracuse = 3-way-tie between WV, BC, and Pitt, which Pitt wins as long as they are within five BCS spots of the highest ranked team. The hard part is getting with 5 spots of WV or BC, I think.
2. Pitt beats WV, BC loses to both Temple and Syracuse = 3-way-tie between WV, Pitt, and Syracuse, which goes to the highest ranked team (probably WV, but you never know).
3. Pitt beats WV, BC beats Temple, and BC loses to Syracuse = 4-way-tie between WV, BC, Pitt, and Syracuse. And get this, WV & BC are eliminated because they finish 1-2 in the round robin. Higher ranked between Pitt and Syracuse gets the tie-break (or Syracuse if neither are ranked).
There you have it. If anyone cares, I can figure out the scenarios for some other conference, although the rest are pretty easy.

(edited by Mr. Boffo on 15.11.04 1740)

(edited by Mr. Boffo on 15.11.04 1740)
BigSteve
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#9 Posted on 15.11.04 1923.08
Reposted on: 15.11.11 1923.32
I'm hoping for that BC vs Utah game in the Fiesta Bowl so we can just be rid of this BCS silliness once and for all. Does anyone know if they're going to "re-align" the BCS because of all of the upcoming conference shifts? I can't imagine that the Big East would still get an automatic berth after they got gutted, and then added a few Conference USA teams.

Utah still has to watch out though. Last year TCU had a chance for the undefeated regular season, and they blew it on the last day. As an aside to this, nobody is talking about still unbeaten Boise State. I know that their schedule isn't even as good as that of Utah, probably, but where are they gonna get to play? It's hard to go 11-0 and go to the Hawaii Bowl or something.
Mr. Boffo
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#10 Posted on 15.11.04 1944.28
Reposted on: 15.11.11 1944.42
Well, without getting into a BCS game, Boise State is screwed. All the ESPN guys are predicting Boise State vs Louisville in the Autozone Liberty Bowl http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?page=04bowlpicks . The weird thing is that the Liberty Bowl is not a WAC bowl. It usually has the winner of the Mountain West (Utah) vs the winner of C-USA (Louisville). So I guess they figure that the Liberty Bowl will take Boise State if Utah makes it to the BCS. I guess that Boise State must be rooting for Utah to make it then, since that means a $1.3 million payout for Boise State, as opposed to the $750K they'd get at any of the WAC's normal bowls.
It seems a little weird to me that they can do that (take Boise State in place of a MWC team). You think it would just go to the next highest in the same conference.

I can't see if they mention how long the BCS contracts run through at bcsfootball.org or not.
bash91
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#11 Posted on 15.11.04 2113.25
Reposted on: 15.11.11 2114.51
Of course, even if Utah remains undefeated and in the top 6 in the BCS standings, they still may not be playing in the Fiesta Bowl. I've heard in several places that the Liberty Bowl will not release Utah from that bowl to go to a BCS bowl without significant financial compensation from the BCS. Since Utah isn't in a BCS conference, their bowl tie-in doesn't have the automatic out for the BCS that the contracts for the BCS conferences have in their agreements which means that the Utah and the BCS wouldn't have a way to force the Liberty Bowl's hand short of paying them off.

Tim
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#12 Posted on 15.11.04 2341.37
Reposted on: 15.11.11 2342.47
bash91, I found the same articles. And that is what the Liberty Bowl people are saying. However, looking at http://www.bcsfootball.org/index.cfm?page=faq , it says "Prior to the 1998 football regular season, the FedEx Orange, Nokia Sugar, Rose and Tostitos Fiesta Bowls joined with the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Pacific-10 and Southeastern Conferences and the University of Notre Dame to form the Bowl Championship Series (BCS). In 2004, Conference USA, Sun Belt, Mid-American, Mountain West and Western Athletic conferences joined the BCS."

And it also says that conferences whose champions aren't guaranteed spots are being paid $42 million over 8 years.

In other words, if I'm reading that right, the Mid-Majors joined on, agreeing to all the BCS stipulations, in exchange for being paid some money. One of the stipulations is that a team from a mid-major in the top six is guaranteed a spot. So, by my understanding at least, Utah does have an automatic out. Obviously the Liberty Bowl disagrees, and I of course am no lawyer (though I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night), but that's what I get out of it.

Rereading the BCS bylaws reminded me of the Notre Dame exception. Basically it's that if a mid-major team makes it to a BCS Bowl, Notre Dame can also automatically get an at large selection, as long as they end up with 9 wins. Of course, that won't happen, since Notre Dame's at 6-4 with one game left, but it's still a weird loophole. If it happened this year, then Cal at #4 would be out of luck. Crazy stuff.

(edited by Mr. Boffo on 15.11.04 2345)
Grimis
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#13 Posted on 16.11.04 0654.31
Reposted on: 16.11.11 0655.56
If you look at the remaining schedules, there is still a chance Utah could get to # 2. Most of the top teams in the top 10 still have rivalry games...

USC: Notre Dame, at UCLA

Oklahoma: at Baylor, Big XII Title Game

Auburn: at Alabama, SEC Title Game

California: Stanford, at Southern Miss

Texas: Texas A&M

Utah: BYU

Michigan: at Ohio State

Florida State: Florida

Boise State: Lousiana Tech, at Nevada

Louisville: at Houston, Cincinnati, at Tulane

So there is a chance for Utah to get to # 2 AND for Boise to get to the top 6, which under these criteria would keep the # 3/4 out. I think...
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