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PalpatineW
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#1 Posted on 13.10.04 0326.21
Reposted on: 13.10.11 0329.01
Got this from NRO's Kerry Spot, by Jim Geraghty.

http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerry200410121741.asp

Here are the results of last election year's polls.


    Zogby underestimated Bush by 2, had Gore accurate.
    Washington Post had Bush accurate, Gore underestimated by 3.
    Pew underestimated Bush by 2; underestimated Gore by 5.
    Newsweek underestimated Bush by 3; underestimated Gore by 5.
    NBC/Wall Street Journal underestimated Bush by 1; underestimated Gore by 4.
    Marist overestimated Bush by 1, underestimated Gore by 4.
    Harris underestimated both Bush and Gore by one point.
    Gallup had Bush accurate, Gore underestimated by 2.
    Fox News underestimated both Bush and Gore by 5 percentage points each.
    CBS News underestimated Bush by 4, Gore by 3.
    Battleground overestimated Bush by 2, underestimated Gore by 3.


Data for those polls:



    1 Battleground (11/5-6; 1,000 LVs; +/- 3%)^ 50 45 4
    2 Bullseye (10/31-11/2, 11/5; +/- 3.1%) 45 42 4
    1 CBS News (11/4-6; 806 LVs; +/- 3%) 44 45 4
    1 Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-31; 881 DVs; +/- 3.1%) 45 45 5
    2 Fox News (11/1-2; 1,000 LVs; +/- 3%) 43 43 3
    1 Gallup (11/5-6; 2,350 LVs; +/- 2%)^ 48 46 4
    1 Harris (11/3-5; 1,348 LVs; +/- 3%) 47 47 5
    0 ICR (11/1-5; 1,141 LVs; +/- 3%) 46 44 7
    2 Marist Inst. (11/1-2; 623 LVs; +/- 4.5%) 49 44 2
    1 NBC/WSJ (11/3-5; 1,026 LVs; +/- 3%) 47 44 3
    2 Newsweek (10/31-11/2; 808 LVs; +/- 4%) 45 43 5
    0 Pew (11/1-4; 1,307 LVs; +/- 3%) 46 43 3
    1 TIPP (11/4-6; 1,292 LVs; +/- 2.8%) 48 46 4
    2 Wash. Post (11/4-6; 1,801 LVs; +/- 2%) 48 45 3
    1 Zogby Int'l (11/5-6; 1,200 LVs; +/- 3%)^ 46 48 5


Also:


    UPDATE: Gerry Daly observes that one pollster ‘called’ over 29% of the 2002 Senate and/or Gubenatorial races for the wrong candidate, despite polling more races than all but one other company.

    The average for everybody else was getting about 13% of the races wrong, by comparison?

    This pollster? Zogby.

    Another pollster polled more 2002 races than any others, but only got one wrong. This pollster? Mason-Dixon.


Given all the discussion about polling around here, thought people might find that interesting.


Edit: I typed last year, but I meant last election, as in Bush v. Gore.

(edited by PalpatineW on 13.10.04 1737)
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Grimis
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#2 Posted on 13.10.04 0627.39
Reposted on: 13.10.11 0628.02
It's very interesting considering how critical Zogby has been of some other pollsters...
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