So according to the Russian news propaganda that I watch, the U.S. is within 3 days of going to war with Iran, but currently in a holding pattern. The thought is that Obama pulled a diplomatic move at the last minute to stall out full blown war.
Does this match what you guys perceive is going on, or is this just a crazy spin job from what is unlikely to be an unbiased source? Keep in mind they were interviewing an Iranian guy right after this report, from Russia.
I can see Israel attacking in the very near future, but I can't see US forces getting put into play that quickly. Now, if Iran goes full out counter-attack on Israel, the equation changes rapidly and US forces probably enter into a conflict.
I think we're close, but I think the Israelis are closer. If the Iranians are building Bombs, the Israelis have to get 'em gone before they bury the systems in some deep hole.
Conspiracy theorists are all over this, but the hate between the Iranians and the Israelis is going to blow, and soon. It's pretty clear Israel has nukes, so the question is, will the US strike before Israel to protect Israel. I don't think President Obama will.
We'll be back right after order has been restored here in the Omni Center.
That the universe was formed by a fortuitous concourse of atoms, I will no more believe than that the accidental jumbling of the alphabet would fall into a most ingenious treatise of philosophy - Swift
According to a Wall Street Journal report I heard, Iran has been working feverishly at cleaning several places where it is thought they were both building and testing warheads. They've invited inspectors in to look at limited sites, so they are either legit hiding something, or going the Sadam route and trying to make themselves a victim of oppressive westerners and/or Zionists. Either way, you have got to tread lightly and make sure when you decide its time to bomb, they need to go full in and hit every single target they even think would hold a nuke weapon. IF Obama participates, I fear it will either be half assed,so that it doesn't seem like he's a war monger, or he only gets involved for political reasons. Either way, scary times are ahead.
Originally posted by The Jerusalem Post, ThursdayAn Israeli attack on Iran to halt its nuclear program is not in the immediate offing, but will also not – if necessary – be pushed off for years, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu intimated in interviews he gave on Thursday to the country’s three television networks.
“I don’t have a stop watch in hand,” Netanyahu said in a segment of the interview to Channel 2 aired on Thursday evening. “This is not a matter of days or weeks. It is also not a matter of years. The result has to be that the threat of a nuclear weapon in Iran’s hands is removed.”
And that's from the conservative paper.
One factor to keep in mind is that Israel doesn't have the same capability as the US to penetrate the targets you'd have to hit to disrupt the program. And obviously the Israels don't have any way to mount a sustained military operation. Any unilateral strike will come at a heavy diplomatic cost, for a country that has little diplomatic capital to spend. To take that step, Bibi would have to be damn sure he can stop the Iranian program.
Meanwhile, the sanctions against the Iranian National Bank are just starting to go into effect, and the sanctions against Iranian oil purchases are set for late June if there is no resolution. The reports of 'cleaning' facilities make it sound like Iran is at least going to try and make it look like they are complying, and will allow the IAEA back in. Remains to be seen how free the access will be, of course.
Now that Obama has said that the US will not tolerate an Iranian weapon, I don't doubt that he will take military steps if diplomacy doesn't work. Non-proliferation has been a primary Obama FP issue, and the destabilizing effect of an Iranian bomb is not overstated.
And if you think he won't do it, just remember this is the guy who was criticized in the 2008 campaign for stating that he would send troops into Pakistan after Bin Laden if he didn't feel the Pakistanis were cooperating with the search.
Going forward, I'd suggest paying less attention to Netanyahu statements, and look for reports getting attributed to intelligence sources of both Israel and the US.
I think people really underestimate what Obama will do. The GOP candidates have been sniping for some time about this, but its easy to be that guy when you have nothing to lose and since none of them hold any office and real vote to take on it either minus Paul. Let us also remember something called the Samson Option, Israel has at their disposal. Its not like a nuke in that part of the world is new thing.
The other part of this equation is Americans are pretty much sick of the Middle Eastern Wars. We are still in Afghanistan til the election is over or maybe less than that if Obama wants to pull everyone out in August which is not a bad idea. McCain is the only crying out over bombing Syria mainly and no one seems to care. If we are dragged into war with Iran, I expect it to be a lot of like Lybia of the USA bombing the shit out of them while Israel leads the ground troops into take a small piece of the country as a fuck you. Deploying ground troops is not a wise move at all. The smart and sane thing to do is do all the diplomacy you can and hire infiltrators to sabotage the project which Israel and probably us have been doing.
There is the also we be broke coming into play, too. We can't afford another costly five year war with a country that has a shit ton of oil and some ok allies with Russia and China. China will bust our balls with the debt and we will be looking at $6 a gallon gas and the recovery we have now will be shot. Yet, Obama does go all in all this which I think he will. I think he will just nuke the hell out of them to show the world is the sheer terror of what they are trying to build. The rest of the countries will go ape shit, but hey you want to sit on the sidelines and bitch then you don't get a say. I doubt it will happen, but its the same guy who took out Osma and Gaddafi without really giving a shit about sovereignty or legality and he was right to do so then and if he nukes the shit out of them, he will be right to do so. People have forgotten about the power of these things since World War II, it might be time for another lesson.
The Wee Baby Sheamus.
Twitter: @realjoecarfley its a bit more toned down there. A bit.
I cannot see Obama using a nuke on Iran in any way shape or form. There is just too many factors that come into play. It would royally piss off China and Russia and the last thing we need is to go back into the Cold War. And as you said, China holds a ton of our debt. Personally, I don't think they will call it in because they need us as much as we need them, but you never know.
Plus, a nuclear attack on Iran would basically unify the Middle East.
Not to mention Bush is too damn stodgy to appoint Gingrich. Someone needs to tell him that being friends with your fellow lawmakers is secondary; hiring competent people comes first. It's like the Arlen Specter/Pat Toomey deal in PA.