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The W - Current Events & Politics - 2010 Senate/House Prediction Thread Register and log in to post!
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redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 291 days
Last activity: 291 days
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.89
Week out from election day, so might as well make a guess on the final numbers: Counting the socialist and Lieberman as Democrats, Democrats retain control of the Senate 52-48 (which means Obama gets to keep Biden out of the country), while the House goes Republican 232-203. Bonus pick: McMahon loses Conn. 57-43, and then the fun analysis of how much Vince spent per vote for his wife. Well, it is cheaper than her getting half in a divorce.
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lotjx
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Since: 5.9.08

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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.65
I am going 54-47, Dems and that is an optimistic number even though Boxer looks to have rebounded back into a safe zone. Pa, WA, WV, NV and IL keep blue while the rest goes red. The polls in Pa have been to chaotic, they have them tied to Toomey +7 which means its closer then it really is or no one knows how to do a poll around here. The other ones are either too close to call or leaning Democrat. For the House, I am going 240-195. I think most of the close elections will split towards the GOP. Losing the House is not the end of the world and actually keeping the Senate is a giant win considering this time three months ago, the GOP was looking to own all of Congress.

Its a body blow for Obama and the Dems, but not the KO. He might actually be able to sway a number of disenfranchised GOPers to his side like Mazawski in Alaska if she wins her write in as well other Republicans who are watching the GOP turn into a party of the craziest person gets the nomination. I also don't think the GOP stall tactic that worked well for the last two years can work here. Obama can now point to the House as a reason there is no job creation if they continue to not to do anything.

The Dems have only themselves to blame in this one, they didn't fight hard and long after Health Care. They looked at some bad polling a year before the election and ran away from the one guy who can stump for them that could get a big crowd. They also didn't clear up the death panel and other Tea Party lies which a media who loves a good controversy played up. The Dems do what they do best against a strong GOP attack, retreat and die. The silver lining is the GOP even if they do win are going to be so splintered on how to govern as well as everyone fighting for the nomination that it can only help the Dems.

My surprise pick is Malaiwski in Alaska over Miller after the Dems realize they can't win and support her.
Peter The Hegemon
Lap cheong








Since: 11.2.03
From: Hackettstown, NJ

Since last post: 2 days
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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.99
I don't know if there's a joke in there I'm not getting, but her name is Murkowski.
Big Bad
Scrapple








Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 19 hours
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.55
    Originally posted by lotjx
    The Dems have only themselves to blame in this one, they didn't fight hard and long after Health Care. They looked at some bad polling a year before the election and ran away from the one guy who can stump for them that could get a big crowd. They also didn't clear up the death panel and other Tea Party lies which a media who loves a good controversy played up. The Dems do what they do best against a strong GOP attack, retreat and die. The silver lining is the GOP even if they do win are going to be so splintered on how to govern as well as everyone fighting for the nomination that it can only help the Dems.


Hard to argue with this. It took way too long for the Dems to realize that the Republicans weren't going to agree to do anything, so they might as well have just passed the most liberal bills possible to keep their base fired up. (Then again, even that would've been impossible given the presence of Lieberman, Nelson, Lincoln and other conservative Democrats.)

The problem with the 'silver lining' is that there won't be any arguments within the GOP about how to govern since they've discovered that actively not governing seems to be a good political strategy. They shoot down everything for two years, then turn around and claim 'the system is broken!' and people for some reason buy it.
lotjx
Scrapple








Since: 5.9.08

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 3 hours
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.65
    Originally posted by Big Bad
      Originally posted by lotjx
      The Dems have only themselves to blame in this one, they didn't fight hard and long after Health Care. They looked at some bad polling a year before the election and ran away from the one guy who can stump for them that could get a big crowd. They also didn't clear up the death panel and other Tea Party lies which a media who loves a good controversy played up. The Dems do what they do best against a strong GOP attack, retreat and die. The silver lining is the GOP even if they do win are going to be so splintered on how to govern as well as everyone fighting for the nomination that it can only help the Dems.


    Hard to argue with this. It took way too long for the Dems to realize that the Republicans weren't going to agree to do anything, so they might as well have just passed the most liberal bills possible to keep their base fired up. (Then again, even that would've been impossible given the presence of Lieberman, Nelson, Lincoln and other conservative Democrats.)

    The problem with the 'silver lining' is that there won't be any arguments within the GOP about how to govern since they've discovered that actively not governing seems to be a good political strategy. They shoot down everything for two years, then turn around and claim 'the system is broken!' and people for some reason buy it.


The problem with shooting down everything and blaming the system, is they are the system now. The House sets the legislative agenda for the next two years. Even if Obama vetoes everything which I doubt, the Senate is close enough that they can get stuff passed. I also don't think the system is broken is going to work with a 9.0 percent unemployment if the Dems start demanding hard for jobs bills from the House and we get more conservative social legislation like abortion, drugs, gays in the military and so on. Its not a bad strategy, but I think people want to see results from these people instead of more bitching.

I think they should done the public option in health care and focused more on the economy instead of being ADD to whatever "crisis" that the Tea Party and media were creating. Yeah, I screwed up her name, my bad on that.
The Thrill
Banger








Since: 16.4.02
From: Green Bay, WI

Since last post: 1 day
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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.25
Welcome home, men of the 2nd Bn, 127th Infantry, 32d "Red Arrow" Brigade, WI Army National Guard! Job well done in Iraq!

A very good site, Electoral-Vote.com, has the House going 228-207 for the GOP, with the Dems retaining the Senate.

And you thought Congress was useless NOW. *rolls eyes* We're gonna get us some major gridlock...which should give Pres. Obama all he needs to roll to re-election in 2012 (especially if the GOP runs Palin...*shuddder*)

It's pretty discouraging to this conservative that in a mid-term election year, when the party out of the White House always makes gains on Capitol Hill, the red-state guys seem to be running a lot of BATSH*T-CRAZY candidates. Thanks a pantsload, Tea Party. (Oh, and all those wackjob signs at the rallies were a big help, too.)

And lotjx...a more economy-focused Capitol Hill would've been nice, but passing that nat'l health care law scared the bejeezus out of potential employees, who are now hoarding cash because they dunno how much they'll now have to pay for these grand new health care requirements.

Which, of course, would've been dead-on-arrival had they actually kept that public option in.

So 2016 is the real question...where does the country go there?







NWA Wisconsin...Live, Local Pro Wrestling! Now on Facebook!

Downtown Bookie
Morcilla








Since: 7.4.02
From: The Inner City, Now Living In The Country

Since last post: 147 days
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#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.27
I could be way wrong, but I don't think the Republicans are going to do as well as most of the pundits are predicting.

My guesses:


U.S. Senate

Democrats 53

Republicans 44

Independents 3

U.S. House of Representatives

Republicans 222

Democrats 213



http://www.americasupportsyou.mil


"Share your food with the hungry, and give shelter to the homeless. Give clothes to those who need them, and do not hide from relatives who need your help." - Isaiah 58:7 (New Living Translation)
AWArulz
Knackwurst








Since: 28.1.02
From: Louisville, KY

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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.68
I think we're going to see a very close Senate. I count the so-called Independents with the Democrats

Senate 52-48 Dems - I think Reid hangs on in Nevada. But wouldn't it be awesome to have him and Boxer and Feingold lose?

House 245-190 Reps - Looks like tossing incumbents out is going to be a national thing.

Governors - 29 to 20 Reps - with Chafee winning in RI to make the 50th. He's about 60% a Democrat, I think

Should be an exciting day



We'll be back right after order has been restored here in the Omni Center.

That the universe was formed by a fortuitous concourse of atoms, I will no more believe than that the accidental jumbling of the alphabet would fall into a most ingenious treatise of philosophy - Swift

Leroy
Andouille








Since: 7.2.02
From: Huntington, NY

Since last post: 18 hours
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#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.19
    Originally posted by AWArulz
    Senate 52-48 Dems - I think Reid hangs on in Nevada. But wouldn't it be awesome to have him and Boxer and Feingold lose?


Carly Fiorina would be an unmitigated disaster. She quite nearly destroyed HP - and I know Republicans who DESPISE Boxer and still won't vote for Fiorina on principle.
Downtown Bookie
Morcilla








Since: 7.4.02
From: The Inner City, Now Living In The Country

Since last post: 147 days
Last activity: 2 days
#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.27
Here's (news.yahoo.com) a pretty good article from the AP (via Yahoo!) regarding what to look for early tomorrow night to see which way the results are trending. For example:

    Originally posted by Nancy Benac, Associate Press
    If the GOP can unseat Democratic Rep. Baron Hill in Indiana's always-hard-fought 9th congressional district, for example, that's a good sign for the expected Republican takeover of the House. And if they can capture all three seats they've got an eye on in Indiana, that could well signal a GOP hurricane.

    On the other hand, if Democrats hold their ground in Indiana, and if their Kentucky Senate candidate, Jack Conway, can beat back Republican Rand Paul, it could be an early indication that GOP gains won't challenge the record books and that the tea party is serving weak brew.



Again, no real insights as to what will happen, but a pretty good guide to deciphering what the early returns portend for the night as a whole.



http://www.americasupportsyou.mil


"Share your food with the hungry, and give shelter to the homeless. Give clothes to those who need them, and do not hide from relatives who need your help." - Isaiah 58:7 (New Living Translation)
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 291 days
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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.89
    Originally posted by AWArulz

    Governors - 29 to 20 Reps - with Chafee winning in RI to make the 50th. He's about 60% a Democrat, I think

    Should be an exciting day






The Missing Linc is about 95% Democrat. He's been in the 30-35 range the whole time, only reason he's going to win is the Democrat has lost his support to the Republican. The Mental Pigmy Child of Ted Kennedy is finally gone, and this idiot who probably got kicked in the head when he used to shoe horses is probably returning. God, why can't this state be contracted?
lotjx
Scrapple








Since: 5.9.08

Since last post: 1 day
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#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.65
    Originally posted by Leroy
      Originally posted by AWArulz
      Senate 52-48 Dems - I think Reid hangs on in Nevada. But wouldn't it be awesome to have him and Boxer and Feingold lose?


    Carly Fiorina would be an unmitigated disaster. She quite nearly destroyed HP - and I know Republicans who DESPISE Boxer and still won't vote for Fiorina on principle.


I am not a big fan of Reid, but Angle thinks two cities in America are under Muslim law, one being in Michigan and the other in Texas which does not exist. I understand people are pissed about the economy and so on, but don't vote crazy. also, it looks like Boxer will probably win.
Mike Zeidler
Pepperoni








Since: 27.6.02
From: Champaign, IL

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#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.29
I will go out on a (probably very weak) limb and say

53-47 Democratic Majority in the Senate
219-216 Democratic Majority in the House

I do hope Harry Reid loses, as he's a spineless milquetoast who can't get a thing done. Also, it'll show the Tea Partiers that even unseating a major Democratic senator means little to nothing when you're (basically) a lone voice in the crowd.



"Tattoos are the mullets of the aughts." - Mike Naimark
spf
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

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#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
GOP picks up Senate seats in PA, AR, IN, IL, ND, WI, and CO. Reid narrowly survives in NV, saving the Dem majority in the Senate (as if the GOP gets to 49 seats I think Nelson and Lieberman switch caucuses). GOP takes a small majority on the House, let's say they end up at 228 seats.

Fiorina, Whitman, and McMahon all lose, a bad night for women with lots of money and no political record.



2007 and 2008 W-League Fantasy Football champion!
CajunMan
Boudin blanc
No longer registered








Since: 2.1.02
From: Give me a Title shot!

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#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 0.88
FoxNews projects Blumenthal winner. On the bright side Marco Rubio projected winner in Florida.

(edited by CajunMan on 2.11.10 1904)
CajunMan
Boudin blanc
No longer registered








Since: 2.1.02
From: Give me a Title shot!

Since last post: 911 days
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#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 0.88
Rand Paul a big winner!

(edited by CajunMan on 2.11.10 2013)
CRZ
Big Brother
Administrator








Since: 9.12.01
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#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.21
You're off for the rest of the night.



shawnpatrick
Kishke








Since: 31.7.07
From: Leesville SC

Since last post: 701 days
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#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.65
With all the high unemployment and foreclosure rates in Nevada and California.... the Democrats did much better than expected with Reid, Boxer, and Jerry Brown all winning and with higher than expected margin.

Republicans did gain the house, but they won't be able to do squat as the Dems still control the Senate and Presidency. In 2012, both parties will continue to blame each other.

When Reagan lost a bunch of seats in the house in 1982, he stopped being a conservative and became a moderate. (Yes, Reagan was in fact a fiscal liberal).

When Clinton lost a bunch of seats in the house in 1994, he stopped being a liberal and became a moderate. (Yes, Clinton was a in fact the most conservative spending president in recent history).

What will Obama do? Will he go to the center, or will he stay to the left? Stay tuned.
lotjx
Scrapple








Since: 5.9.08

Since last post: 1 day
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#19 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.50
    Originally posted by shawnpatrick
    With all the high unemployment and foreclosure rates in Nevada and California.... the Democrats did much better than expected with Reid, Boxer, and Jerry Brown all winning and with higher than expected margin.

    Republicans did gain the house, but they won't be able to do squat as the Dems still control the Senate and Presidency. In 2012, both parties will continue to blame each other.

    When Reagan lost a bunch of seats in the house in 1982, he stopped being a conservative and became a moderate. (Yes, Reagan was in fact a fiscal liberal).

    When Clinton lost a bunch of seats in the house in 1994, he stopped being a liberal and became a moderate. (Yes, Clinton was a in fact the most conservative spending president in recent history).

    What will Obama do? Will he go to the center, or will he stay to the left? Stay tuned.



The problem for Obama is what is the center? Not spending during a recession is only going to lead to a depression. He may make some compromises to Health Care just to get it off the table, but the GOP is still going to pound him on it. Due you try to do immigration reform when the Latino vote saved California and Nevada? Do you try to do education reform when states are already telling teachers to forget about every seeing a pension? The economy has to be the number one priority, but you have to spend even with tax cuts. The country also voted in some of these people in by the narrowest of margins like Pa, Wa, Ohio and others in the senate. Its not impossible in 2 or 4 years to win back some of these seats. The more crazy GOP candidates at least in the senate lost. So, its not impossible to use that same strategy that bounced the Crazy Teas in the Senate on those in the House. Especially when they start voting for laws middle America is not too fond of. The center seems to be don't spend money, but we need jobs.


I also think the country doesn't even know what to do or what the center is. Most polling shows most people didn't even like the candidate they voted for and wanted to send the message. So, the message is, "We don't like what you are doing, so we are sending this guy to stop you. Yet, we don't even like most of their policies." The economy was the number one issue tonight and maybe a balanced budget will help that. Yet, I don't know how fiscal conservatives are going to vote for the Bush Tax Cuts when they actually increase the deficit.

The three major deficit eaters are the military, social security and medicare. The Health Care reform sorta tackled medicare, so if you repeal it, you are probably creating even more debt. Privatizing social security is not going to happen after most of the people who wanted to retire now watched their savings go up in 2008 and probably not keen on taking that chance again. The military is a place we can cut spending, but we are stuck in Afghanistan and the GOP doesn't seem to want to move away from that or give the image they are cutting our troops at the knees when they need the money. So, where are they going to cut? The Department of Education. Good Luck, as you watch parents and teachers unite over that while kicking out GOPers in local races in 2011. Even if you cut earmarks, you are cutting jobs and those things are even close to what those three cost. I am sure the GOP will say they cut things here and there, but when the unemployment is still 9% then what?

The GOP now is part of the blame game. The Dems in my mind broke even. They got the Senate thanks to the Tea Party nominating morons. The GOP does set the legislative agenda and if every week is another argument about Health Care while people are jobless, you will see by the summer the Congress' poll numbers slide into the basement. The best thing for Obama and the GOP to do is get a jobs bill. A bill that moves past the state government who used their stimulus money to offset their own crippling debt. A bill in which, people will have long term jobs and somehow be deficit nuetral. I know people are saying they don't want the government to spend, but a year from now when the GOP has only given tax breaks and there are no jobs, people will start demanding some action.

One last thing, I promise. The Tea Party did help the GOP with winning a bunch of seats in the house. Yet, they killed them in the senate and don't think that won't go by the party establishment. The opening salve in the GOP civil war was fired with the release of the party's strategy to remove Palin. They don't want her to be a kingmaker even though she energizes the base, she also energizes the Dems. I think if the Tea Party pushes hard for their own caucus, you will see tensions mount. The Tea Party has pushed the party far right again which is no surprise since most of these folks always vote hard right anyway. Locally, they can win with this strategy or at least right now, but on a state wide or national level, they will or have already gotten crushed. A number of easy races like Pa, SC, and others turned into nail biters while others turned into disasters. The real question shouldn't be what will Obama do now, is can Bohener pull these people together or are we watching the GOP being taken over by an extreme element that even the party establishment thinks is dangerous?

(edited by lotjx on 3.11.10 0639)
TheBucsFan
TheChiefsFan








Since: 2.1.02

Since last post: 22 days
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#20 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.62
I don't know what is more amazing: That Obama and his allies managed to squander such an amazing amount of political support and goodwill in just two years, or that people's collective response has been to turn to the group of people who pissed them off enough to have such support for Obama in the first place.

I look forward to two years of whining and finger pointing, followed by another election between people accusing each other of being whining finger pointers.



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