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The W - Football - 2009 College Football Predictions
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TheBucsFan
TheChiefsFan








Since: 2.1.02

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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.92
I've waited as long as I possibly can to start talking college football. Now it's August, fall camps are starting, and I've got 10 predictions that, should even one of them be true, will allow me to gloat in January about how brilliant I am while *you* will probably forget I ever said it in the event I'm wrong! I'm trying to keep these to measurable, right-or-wrong statements.

So here are my predictions, of varying degrees of boldness:

1) The Florida Gators will repeat as national champions. Urban Meyer is a smug son of a bitch. But I guess I would be too if I was as good at my job as he is at his. The Gators have probably the best coach in the country, or at least one of the top three. They return the best player in the country. The SEC has, in my opinion, experienced a slight decline from a few years ago when it was head and shoulders above all the other BCS conferences (it probably still is, but the Big XII was pretty close last year). I think the Gators will go undefeated this year.

2) Tim Tebow will win his second Heisman Trophy. With apologies to Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy, Tebow is the best quarterback in the game by far, and I hate admitting that. This year, he cements his legacy as one of the greatest players in the history of college football. I hate Tebow with more passion than is healthy. I hate that he wins all the time. I hate that he won the Heisman as a sophomore. I hate that he seems so friendly and humble. Most of all, I hate that he's a Gator.

But damn I wish he was on my team.

3) Oklahoma will beat Texas and win the Big XII, earning a national championship game rematch with Florida. Sam Bradford is an amazing quarterback. That's all the insight I really have to offer. Colt McCoy is obviously damn good himself, but I think Bradford is better. That's ultimately what this boils down to.

4) Michigan will go to a bowl game. I think last season was understandable, no matter how disappointing it might have been in Ann Arbor. I mean, in going from Lloyd Carr to Rich Rodriguez, the Wolverines underwent about as radical an ideological change as is possible in a head coach. But Rodriguez is a good coach, and had big second years in Toledo and Morgantown. Competing for a BCS birth is out of the question, but I think he'll have this team bowling.

5) Illinois will play in a January bowl game. I think the Illini's Rose Bowl trip two years ago was clearly the result of a crazy season in which everyone who was supposed to be good just kept on losing. But I think Ron Zook is a good coach, and, while everything I've read about them suggests the Illini have some major questions at running back and all over the defense, Juice Williams has been great at quarterback every time I've seen him, and I think he'll have Illinois competing in a not-so-strong Big Ten.

6) Alabama will return to the SEC Championship Game. I can't believe the Crimson Tide went 12-0 in the regular season last year. They just didn't look that great to me - though I only saw two regular season games and the SEC championship game, plus the Sugar Bowl. But the schedule only gets easier this year. Last year, they played Georgia, LSU and Tennessee on the road; this year, the Tide play LSU and the Vols at home and don't play Georgia. I'm just not that impressed with the SEC after Alabama, LSU and Florida. Alabama won't go undefeated in the regular season this time, though.

7) No Mountain West Conference team will reach a BCS bowl. I think the Mountain West is stupid to make a pillar of its anti-BCS act the argument that it's as good, or nearly as good, as the weakest BCS conferences. Other than the transition year of 2004, after Miami and Virginia Tech left the Big East but before Louisville, USF and Cincinnati joined, I'd say last year was the first time the MWC champ might actually have been better than the Big East champ. And even that I don't think is a given - I'm not as impressed with Utah's Sugar Bowl victory over Alabama as some people seem to be.

And after the top of the conference, the Mountain West is as weak as any of the non-BCS conferences, save for the awful, awful Sun Belt conference. It would take BYU, Utah and TCU doing what they did in 2008 every year for this argument to hold water, and that's just unlikely. The conference and school presidents should instead focus their arguments solely on the inherent disparity of the current system. Because when the conference champ has two losses this year and doesn't go to a BCS game, it will make the conference look silly.

8) USF will win the Big East and go to the team's first BCS bowl game. No. 8 seems like a good place to bury the homer pick. USF returns four-year starter Matt Grothe at quarterback and defense end George Selvie, one of the best returning defensive players in the country. In a conference lacking any real star power after those two guys and also void of a clear preseason favorite, I think it's Grothe in particular that makes the difference as he turns in his best season to date. The Bulls will enter the season with their fourth different offensive coordinator in as many seasons, but the players seem really excited about what they're doing now in what is probably a make-or-break season for USF in terms of national perception.

8b) USF will lose at Florida State but beat Miami in Tampa. One great thing about being a fan of such a new team is that almost every year, we get to experience "the biggest game in school history." The trip to Tallahassee in September is a huge game, much more exciting for USF than for FSU I'm sure. It would easily be the biggest win in school history, even if it wouldn't be the best opponent the Bulls have beaten.

As for Miami, I expect USF to be the favorite in that game, so I don't think that's too crazy of a pick.

9) Ohio State will win the Big Ten ... and actually win a BCS bowl game. Terrelle Pryor looks like the real deal. And by all accounts, he looked even better in the spring than he did last season (as he should, being a sophomore). Jim Tresell is too good of a coach for this streak to continue.

10) Someone other than USC will win the Pac-10 conference title. I don't know who it will be. Pete Carroll and co. have had a monopoly on that conference's BCS birth for pretty much the entire decade. But the Trojans almost didn't win it last year, needing Oregon to knock off Oregon State late in the season to secure the bid.

SPECIAL BONUS PREDICTION: If South Florida does in fact go into Doak Campbell Stadium on Sept. 26 and defeat the Seminoles, I will never let wmatistic hear the end of it, perhaps incorporating a victory dance outside his home in Austin (Hey wmatistic, what's your address? I'm just curious.) into my celebration. If FSU wins, I'll remind him the Seminoles were the favorites playing at home at were supposed to win that game, so who cares? :)

(edited by TheBucsFan on 6.8.09 1512)
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redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.75
Lane Kiffin will record more NCAA violations in a week than wins.
Week 3 will be the annual South Florida is Great/South Florida is overrated debate.
Week 8 will be the annual We Want a Playoff/We Don't Want a Playoff debate.
Florida will win the SEC East, but will not win the SEC.
Ole Miss will go unbeaten in the regular season and win the SEC Title Game, causing me to be pissed up until the BCS Title Game that I didn't lay anything on them at 25-1 in the field and 45-1 at Wynn.
Notre Dame will be good. Very good. Or they'll lose week 1 to Nevada. At which point I will be very pissed I didn't bet Ole Miss.
USC will be victorious when they go to the Midwest to play Ohio State. Might not be victorious in their other midwest trip.
Clemson will lose a game on special teams.
Michigan State will lose a game on implosion.
Oklahoma will beat Texas, but will lose to an unranked opponent.
The ACC will be a pile of decent 8-4 teams.
wmatistic
Andouille








Since: 2.2.04
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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.08
Funny, just yesterday I was really wanting to get into a college football discussion here and read through the past few years threads. But I was waiting for the polls to come out, which should be any minute now as they were out Aug 5th last year.

Anyway to the predictions:

1. I know I live in Austin but I don't consider it a homer pick to say Texas will play for the national title(and win). The differences between them and OU is Texas has a better defense and O-line. Plus if a game is on the line, I like McCoy far more than Bradford. Both played in games like that in the past. McCoy stepped up every time, Bradford did not.

2. Florida will not go undefeated, likely due to a Tebow injury. Having said this I just say pics of the dude and he's bigger and more cut than Spikes. It's insane how huge that guy is. But now that Harvin isn't around I think he'll be the star of the show again, and even though the running game got a bit better last year I think he'll take a ton of punishment. They may still play for the national title but with a loss.

3. While I'm thinking FSU should beat USF, that game does scare me simply because as was stated, FSU would never live down that loss. I think a lot may depend on how they start the year. If they come in 3-0 with wins over Miami and BYU, I'll be confident. If they've already lost one, much less so. As for FSU, the o-line is bigger and stronger and the RB's are better than last year, so I'm saying 10 wins. Losses to Florida and some random ACC team.

4. Miami will start 0-4(ok maybe 1-3 at best). They are super hyped about their team, but with a brand new offense and a QB that is young and shaky, they're going to struggle out of the gate. The schedule starts at FSU, then home against Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech then home against Oklahoma. I'm not sold on VT being a national title contender or GT being all that, but they should both be better prepared that early in the year than Miami. Bad news for USF is that the OC is actually a step up from what they had and by the end of the season I expect Miami to be much improved. They do have a ton of talent, just gonna take time.

5. Penn State's pathetic schedule will cause headaches for the BCS. Eight home games. OOC against Akron, Syracuse, Temple and Eastern Illinois. Ohio State at home, no Wisconsin on the schedule. They won't be awesome, but they could very easily go undefeated. Would their weak schedule and the Big 10's recent history overcome voters wanting to give Joe Pa one last title shot? Especially after all those times he got left out? If I'm USC, Texas, Florida or any other contender, better go undefeated cause one loss may be all the voters need to justify this in their heads.

6. Notre Dame is overrated.

7. Tennessee vs Florida will be incredibly entertaining, no matter the score.

8. Quick guess at conference champs:

Big 10 - Ohio State(yeah I know I mentioned Penn State but still)
Big 12 - Texas
Pac 10 - USC
Big East - Not Rutgers(what is with the hype they are getting??)
ACC - FSU (yes, I went there)
SEC - LSU

(edited by wmatistic on 6.8.09 1145)
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.74
If we are going weak schedule, here's Ole Miss, and remember, they will probably get the head start of having a preseason Top 10 to build off of:

At Memphis
SE Louisiana
At S Carolina
At Vandy
Alabama
UAB
Arkansas
at Auburn
Northern Arizona
Tennessee
LSU
at Miss State


If you work off the presumption that there will be a minimum 2 bloodbath weekends (and that is a low number after the past few years), if they get past Bama they will be in the Top 3 when they get to the Tenn/LSU homestand. And, if they get Tebow in the SEC Title game, they lost 30-24 to him in '07 at home, and beat him the Swamp 31-30, so they wouldn't have a fear of him. This is the easiest path an SEC team could ever have in terms of non-conference and the way the conference match-ups break.
TheBucsFan
TheChiefsFan








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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.17
The preseason Coaches' Poll top 25 was released today, and I don't think there are any major surprises.

Florida is the overwhelming No. 1. Texas is second, Oklahoma third.
Jobberman
Kishke








Since: 2.1.02
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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.00
All the cards are in place for Florida to repeat, but they always seem to find a way to blow a game to a team from the west. Replacing Harvin is impossible, that guy was crazy, but if with the amount of speed all overt the place they'll still give teams fits.
wmatistic
Andouille








Since: 2.2.04
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#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.08
    Originally posted by TheBucsFan
    The preseason Coaches' Poll top 25 was released today, and I don't think there are any major surprises.

    Florida is the overwhelming No. 1. Texas is second, Oklahoma third.


Wow, there's actually not much I disagree with there. Shocking for a first poll. I'm a bit stunned with all the people saying Notre Dame would have a great year that they are ranked so low to start. I agree with the ranking, I'm just surprised.

It does look like they all got to #15 and then were like, oh crap we better throw in some non-BCS teams, with Boise, TCU and Utah at 16-18.

That early VT/Bama game is gonna have a lot of impact.
Eddie Famous
Andouille








Since: 11.12.01
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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.74

    Originally posted by TheBucsFan

    5) Illinois will play in a January bowl game. I think the Illini's Rose Bowl trip two years ago was clearly the result of a crazy season in which everyone who was supposed to be good just kept on losing. But I think Ron Zook is a good coach, and, while everything I've read about them suggests the Illini have some major questions at running back and all over the defense, Juice Williams has been great at quarterback every time I've seen him, and I think he'll have Illinois competing in a not-so-strong Big Ten.


Illinois has a stupid schedule, finishing the regular season with non-conference games against Cincinnati and Fresno State. Their defense loses their only few passrushers (Derek Walker and Will Davis), their top tackler (Brit Miller)and only real pass defender (Vontae Davis) to the draft and graduation...and that's from a terrible defense last season.

The offensive line loses a player to the draft (Xavier Fulton) from a unit that was horrible last year and gave Juice no pass protection.

There's a chance for a January bowl, but an even better chance of no bowl at all.



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TheBucsFan
TheChiefsFan








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#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.17
    Originally posted by Eddie Famous
      Originally posted by TheBucsFan

      5) Illinois will play in a January bowl game. I think the Illini's Rose Bowl trip two years ago was clearly the result of a crazy season in which everyone who was supposed to be good just kept on losing. But I think Ron Zook is a good coach, and, while everything I've read about them suggests the Illini have some major questions at running back and all over the defense, Juice Williams has been great at quarterback every time I've seen him, and I think he'll have Illinois competing in a not-so-strong Big Ten.


    Illinois has a stupid schedule, finishing the regular season with non-conference games against Cincinnati and Fresno State. Their defense loses their only few passrushers (Derek Walker and Will Davis), their top tackler (Brit Miller)and only real pass defender (Vontae Davis) to the draft and graduation...and that's from a terrible defense last season.

    The offensive line loses a player to the draft (Xavier Fulton) from a unit that was horrible last year and gave Juice no pass protection.

    There's a chance for a January bowl, but an even better chance of no bowl at all.


You're probably right. But I think Zook is a very good coach who gets an unfair rap for his stint at UF, and I also think the Big Ten sucks after Ohio State and maybe Penn State. Those two factors led to me making this prediction.
Quezzy
Knackwurst








Since: 6.1.02
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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.53
I'm not sure what everybody sees in LSU. The SEC is down this year (LSU is one of the reasons they are down though) but LSU is one of the few teams that has a tough schedule since they play Florida every year and Georgia is on the rotating schedule. Plus Alabama and Ole Miss on the road. Auburn is still a tough game even if they aren't very good and Arkansas is still a tough rival game also. LSU could easily lose 5 conference games again this season. LSU's only good news is their Pac-10 non-conference game of choice this year is a Washington school.

That being said, nobody is going undefeated in the West. Bama lost John Parker Wilson (not a great QB but an experienced one) and Andre Smith. That's probably an even greater loss than Harvin is to Florida. I like Snead and Ole Miss. They could win the division. They did beat Florida and Texas Tech last season, but they also lost to Vanderbilt and South Carolina. They are going to slip up somewhere.



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THAT IS AWESOME!
Ted
Medisterpoelse








Since: 8.8.09

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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.00
"Other than the transition year of 2004, after Miami and Virginia Tech left the Big East but before Louisville, USF and Cincinnati joined, I'd say last year was the first time the MWC champ might actually have been better than the Big East champ. And even that I don't think is a given - I'm not as impressed with Utah's Sugar Bowl victory over Alabama as some people seem to be.
"

The MWC champ was better than the Big East Champ in 2004 and 2008. In 2004 Utah beat Pittsburg in the bowl game. In 2008 Utah beating Alabama is more impressive than Cincinnati losing to VT.
lotjx
Scrapple








Since: 5.9.08

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#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.39
1. Florida will lose in the SEC game. I still don't understand how the SEC is this awesome conference, yet Florida has a weak schedule. What?

2. Penn State wins a back to back Big Ten. They won't go undefeated, but will beat OSU at home which will be enough to win the Big Ten. OSU will slip along the way to someone else.

3. Colt is your Heisman winner. Its his turn with the trophy and will beat Stafford.

4. Texas wins the Big XII. They win, but they don't go undefeated.

5. USC will lose three games. One, Pac-10, One to OSU and finally to Notre Dame.

6. USC wins the Pac-10. They are still the lead dog and will be until someone can recruit worth a damn out there.

7. Kiffan will be a story all year and win only one meaningful game. ESPN is already hyping him up for his radical styles and name calling. I think we found the NCAA equivalent of T.O. He will upset one team though.

8. SEC will destroy each other. Like the Big XII last year, one team will be up for a week or two and then drop a major game. It will lead to an SEC winner with at least one loss maybe two and looking out of the title game.

9. The smaller confrences will force their way back to the BSC. I am not sure what some of these teams have to do to be perfect and get into a title game, but they will at least force one BCS' bowl games hand.

10. Notre Dame will go undefeated in the regular season. The schedule is made easy even with USC, Boston College and the Michigan teams. If Charlie ever had a time to win a title its this year. I think the Hawaii game was a breakout game and they should carry it over to the USC game. I will agree it does look too good to be true which means if they lose more then 2 games, Charlie is gone.
redsoxnation
Scrapple








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#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.74
    Originally posted by lotjx
    1. Florida will lose in the SEC game. I still don't understand how the SEC is this awesome conference, yet Florida has a weak schedule. What?








Charleston Southern, Troy, Florida International and Florida State are the non-conference schedule. Except against Florida State, the Gators could put the cheerleaders on the field and win by 2 touchdowns against the non-conference schedule. I'm historically on the 'SEC is the toughest conference bandwagon', but that might not be the case this year. Florida does have to play LSU on the road, but, they don't get Bama or Ole Miss, Georgia lost a lot of talent, and I think they might absolutely humiliate Tennessee on national television. And, I'm not buying LSU this year.
I agree on Notre Dame on this principle: If they ever make a run, it is this year. Veteran team with speed at the skill positions. If they find a running game, they could be very dangerous. They might be a veteran team in '10, but the schedule is not conducive to a run in that season. It is this season or bust.
Early season scare game: Wofford will go into Camp Randall and stay within a touchdown late against Wisconsin. Wisconsin has shown in the past they play down to the level of competition. Could be Appalachian State all over again.
wmatistic
Andouille








Since: 2.2.04
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#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.08
    Originally posted by lotjx
    9. The smaller confrences will force their way back to the BSC. I am not sure what some of these teams have to do to be perfect and get into a title game, but they will at least force one BCS' bowl games hand.



They get in the BCS bowl games pretty much every year lately.

But if any mid major had a schedule that would give it a real shot a playing for the championship, it's BYU this year. They play both Oklahoma and FSU OOC. Go undefeated with wins over those two, and the only thing that could keep them out of the title game is if two major conference teams go undefeated. Even then, they still might get in.

But it's all moot because they won't win either of those games(I hope).
TheBucsFan
TheChiefsFan








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#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.17
    Originally posted by wmatistic
      Originally posted by lotjx
      9. The smaller confrences will force their way back to the BSC. I am not sure what some of these teams have to do to be perfect and get into a title game, but they will at least force one BCS' bowl games hand.



    They get in the BCS bowl games pretty much every year lately.

    But if any mid major had a schedule that would give it a real shot a playing for the championship, it's BYU this year. They play both Oklahoma and FSU OOC. Go undefeated with wins over those two, and the only thing that could keep them out of the title game is if two major conference teams go undefeated. Even then, they still might get in.

    But it's all moot because they won't win either of those games(I hope).


Yeah, but that's still only two games. After that and Utah and TCU, the rest of BYU's schedule (with 2008 records noted) is:

Tulane (2-10)
Colorado State (6-6)
Utah State (3-9)
UNLV (5-7)
San Diego State (2-10)
Wyoming (4-8)
New Mexico (4-8)
Air Force (8-4)

That's a combined 32-62. Even if you add FSU, Oklahoma, TCU and Utah, the combined records from last season of BYU's opponent's this year 64-68. (None of this includes bowl games.) That's not impressive.

The Mountain West conference is so incredibly bad after those top three and Air Force that BYU could probably schedule Florida, Texas, Oklahoma and USC out of conference and still not be a lock to finish in the top 10 in strength of schedule rankings.
Dutchie
Boerewors
Moderator








Since: 29.1.02
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#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.53
    Originally posted by lotjx

    8. SEC will destroy each other. Like the Big XII last year, one team will be up for a week or two and then drop a major game. It will lead to an SEC winner with at least one loss maybe two and looking out of the title game.


Agreed. Half the fun of last season was trying to follow the "Who's on First?" act that was the Big XII South. Don't know if Texas Tech will be able to leap right back into the mix, having to replace Harrell and Crabtree. Do you think it's the year a Big XII North team spoils the South's fun in the conference title game, though?

And while all the love for Penn State is beautiful, how long 'til the "overrated" talk comes out? Guys, this is an 8-4 (regular season) team at best. 4/5 of the O-line is gone. The 3 starting WRs (Butler, Williams, Norwood) are gone. Off the DL, Maybin and Evans are gone to the NFL, and Koroma is out of school for a year due to family situations. Most of the defensive secondary is gone. Backup QB Pat Devlin transferred to Delaware. The bright spot is the LB unit. Losses @ Illinois and Michigan (hey, we beat 'em last year, so it's another 9 to go before the next win...) and at home to Ohio State and Iowa.

I'll gladly eat my words in 3-4 months, but I just don't see how this team will avoid being called overrated given the current preseason rankings. It's like a bad trip back to '99 with that stupid preseason #1 ranking, and the nosedive that was the second half of the season. Even winning those 4 games won't be enough to overcome the OOC in a race for the MNC. Syracuse makes me happy because it's a traditional rivalry, and Temple is a rivalry enough (one sided as it's been), but it would be much more fun and SOS-conducive to trade E. Illinois and Akron for Maryland/West Virginia and Pitt.
wmatistic
Andouille








Since: 2.2.04
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#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.08
    Originally posted by TheBucsFan
      Originally posted by wmatistic
        Originally posted by lotjx
        9. The smaller confrences will force their way back to the BSC. I am not sure what some of these teams have to do to be perfect and get into a title game, but they will at least force one BCS' bowl games hand.



      They get in the BCS bowl games pretty much every year lately.

      But if any mid major had a schedule that would give it a real shot a playing for the championship, it's BYU this year. They play both Oklahoma and FSU OOC. Go undefeated with wins over those two, and the only thing that could keep them out of the title game is if two major conference teams go undefeated. Even then, they still might get in.

      But it's all moot because they won't win either of those games(I hope).


    Yeah, but that's still only two games. After that and Utah and TCU, the rest of BYU's schedule (with 2008 records noted) is:

    Tulane (2-10)
    Colorado State (6-6)
    Utah State (3-9)
    UNLV (5-7)
    San Diego State (2-10)
    Wyoming (4-8)
    New Mexico (4-8)
    Air Force (8-4)

    That's a combined 32-62. Even if you add FSU, Oklahoma, TCU and Utah, the combined records from last season of BYU's opponent's this year 64-68. (None of this includes bowl games.) That's not impressive.

    The Mountain West conference is so incredibly bad after those top three and Air Force that BYU could probably schedule Florida, Texas, Oklahoma and USC out of conference and still not be a lock to finish in the top 10 in strength of schedule rankings.


Sos rankings, you're right. BCS rankings, heck yes if they beat OU and go undefeated they'll be top three at least, even with that schedule. It's not like Utah had a rough schedule last year, and the only thing that kept from from being there was a win over a top ten team. Remember they finished second after beating Bama. If BYU beats OU and has wins over Utah, TCU and FSU? They'll play for the title(again, barring two other BCS schools going undefeated as well). And I won't even complain. Much.

Oh and StegDutchie, who from the Big 12 North do you think has any shot at beating OU or Texas in that title game? I know people are high on Nebraska but I'm not sure why. Missouri won't be great, Kansas never really was....no one else really worth mentioning.

Baylor will give the South more trouble than anyone from the North.

Dutchie
Boerewors
Moderator








Since: 29.1.02
From: PA

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#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.53
    Originally posted by wmatistic


    Oh and StegDutchie, who from the Big 12 North do you think has any shot at beating OU or Texas in that title game? I know people are high on Nebraska but I'm not sure why. Missouri won't be great, Kansas never really was....no one else really worth mentioning.

    Baylor will give the South more trouble than anyone from the North.




I don't know that a North team will upset a South team in the Big XII championship game. I just posited it. It was a lot of fun to watch Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech beat up on each other last season (and OK State got into the fun, too). But if it is predicted in preseason that the Big XII will come down to the regular-season winner of Oklahoma/Texas, then I just happen to think it would be gloriously fun for a North team to pull that upset off, because then the possibility of throwing the BCS into chaos increases. :)
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