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The W - Current Events & Politics - 2008 Election Prediction Thread (Page 2)
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BigDaddyLoco
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Since: 2.1.02

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#21 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.36
    Originally posted by Guru Zim
    McCain wins decisively because the Obama vote doesn't bother to show up.


It's quite possible a large part of the religious right that helped prop Bush up both times, will not bother to show up either.

I would like to see some polls broken down by age groups. I think McCain will carry the older vote, but not by as big a margin as one might imagine. I think if McCain had chosen a Romney or a stronger VP in general he would be more than a sure thing with these two groups. Older people suprised me they actually are taking McCain's health record and age combined with Palin as next in line into consideration, probably moreso than someone my age.
DrDirt
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Since: 8.10.03
From: flyover country

Since last post: 16 days
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#22 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.83
    Originally posted by BigDaddyLoco
      Originally posted by Guru Zim
      McCain wins decisively because the Obama vote doesn't bother to show up.


    It's quite possible a large part of the religious right that helped prop Bush up both times, will not bother to show up either.

    I would like to see some polls broken down by age groups. I think McCain will carry the older vote, but not by as big a margin as one might imagine. I think if McCain had chosen a Romney or a stronger VP in general he would be more than a sure thing with these two groups. Older people suprised me they actually are taking McCain's health record and age combined with Palin as next in line into consideration, probably moreso than someone my age.


What also hurts McCain is the twisted support people like Rush are giving him. I sort of suspect Rush and the religous right want him to get creamed.

(edited by DrDirt on 30.10.08 2014)


Perception is reality
JayJayDean
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Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

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#23 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.40
    Originally posted by AWArulz
    Abortion clinics like hot dog carts. Guys with jobs in line for food, served by rich poor people. A fun four years. The Warren Court restored.


You ALMOST went full-Grimis, AWA. Wow.



Holy fuck shit motherfucker shit. Read comics. Fuck shit shit fuck shit I sold out when I did my job. Fuck fuck fuck shit fuck. Sorry had to do it....

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Revenge of the Sith = one thumb up from me. Fuck shit. I want to tittie fuck your ass.
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MUTigermask
Boudin rouge








Since: 8.10.03
From: Columbia MO

Since last post: 533 days
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#24 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.96
Well, I do agree with AWA that it will be a semi-landslide. I think Obama wins in the 330-345 range. I do believe that young voter turnout will be high, as I am a young voter who didn't vote last time. Most of my young friends didn't either, and they all seem to be pretty excited to vote. Of course there is nothing scientific involved in this prediction. It does say a lot when there are polls out there showing the race close in places like Arizona. And the Dems will fall just short of the 60 mark in the Senate.

What confuses me is that with just about every poll I see, Obama's lead seems to be staying flat or slightly expanding, yet some of the "news" networks seem to be running stories on how things are tightening. Are they just trying to keep up ratings for election night, or are there things I've missed that *do* show it tightening?



Mr. Boffo
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Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

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#25 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.63
    Originally posted by MUTigermask

    What confuses me is that with just about every poll I see, Obama's lead seems to be staying flat or slightly expanding, yet some of the "news" networks seem to be running stories on how things are tightening. Are they just trying to keep up ratings for election night, or are there things I've missed that *do* show it tightening?


Tightening is just a better story. How can they get you to watch on election night if it's foregone conclusion?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/what-would-tightening-look-like.html

(edited by Mr. Boffo on 30.10.08 1914)
redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

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#26 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.83
I want to pick 269-269 with McCain ahead in the popular vote so everyone's head explodes before the Democratic House and Senate meet to pick Obama and Biden as President and Vice President, but I'll go contrarian and take McCain 273-266. Considering how bad polling has been the last decade, why wouldn't they get this one wrong as well. And remember, if I'm right 52% of the time, that means I'm wrong 48% of the time.
Karlos the Jackal
Lap cheong








Since: 2.1.02
From: The City of Subdued Excitement

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#27 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.00
Obama over McCain, 338-200. McCain suggests they go "best two out of three."

Senate goes 58 seats for the Dems.

--K



Last 5 movies seen: "O" ** - The Visitor ***1/2 - Forgetting Sarah Marshall *** - Leatherheads *** - Cult of the Cobra **
DrDirt
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Since: 8.10.03
From: flyover country

Since last post: 16 days
Last activity: 19 hours
#28 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.83
    Originally posted by MUTigermask
    What confuses me is that with just about every poll I see, Obama's lead seems to be staying flat or slightly expanding, yet some of the "news" networks seem to be running stories on how things are tightening. Are they just trying to keep up ratings for election night, or are there things I've missed that *do* show it tightening?


Polls are always tightening right before the big day. With the rabid attacks by the presumptive loser ramping up, etc. it happens. I hope you youngins vote like you say you will but it needs to happen first.

And JayJay, give AWA a break. That's maybe half Grimmis at best. It has to suck for him to have deeply held convictions that he thought the Reps had also.



Perception is reality
Alex
Bratwurst








Since: 24.2.02

Since last post: 22 days
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#29 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.36
    Originally posted by MUTigermask

    What confuses me is that with just about every poll I see, Obama's lead seems to be staying flat or slightly expanding, yet some of the "news" networks seem to be running stories on how things are tightening. Are they just trying to keep up ratings for election night, or are there things I've missed that *do* show it tightening?



It's mostly cherry-picking, yeah. I can strongly second the suggestion to read fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver is awesome.

Aannd I'm pretty sure AWA was joking, he doesn't seem so prone to hysterical hyperbole.
Leroy
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Since: 7.2.02

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#30 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.85
Without going into a deep explanation as to how I think election day will unfold, all I'll say is...

The Aristocrats!

(Obama wins by a hearty majority, with some drama in the early stages of the returns. Oh, and California's Proposition 8 fails miserably - because even I need to have a little faith now and then.)

(edited by Leroy on 31.10.08 0057)



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Mr. Boffo
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Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 509 days
Last activity: 470 days
#31 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.63
    Originally posted by Leroy
    Oh, and California's Proposition 8 fails miserably - because even I need to have a little faith now and then.)

    (edited by Leroy on 31.10.08 0057)

Well, unless public opinion has changed in 8 years, I doubt it.
Prop 22, the previous ballot initative that was declared unconstitutional passed with 61% in 2000. It helps that Schwarzanegger has come out against it, but we'll see.
Leroy
Boudin blanc








Since: 7.2.02

Since last post: 1 day
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#32 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.85
    Originally posted by Mr. Boffo

    Well, unless public opinion has changed in 8 years, I doubt it.
    Prop 22, the previous ballot initative that was declared unconstitutional passed with 61% in 2000. It helps that Schwarzanegger has come out against it, but we'll see.


It's polling within 4% right now - and was actually leading until the horrific attack ads began. I actually gave the No on Prop 8 people some money today - something I've never done before.




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Downtown Bookie
Morcilla








Since: 7.4.02
From: The Inner City, Now Living In The Country

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#33 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.51
I predict that the Harvard Law School graduate will replace the Harvard Business School graduate who replaced the Yale Law School graduate who replaced the Yale University graduate. As to numbers:

President:
Obama 322
McCain 216

Senate:
Democrats: 56
Republicans: 42
Independents: 2

House:
Democrats: 249
Republicans: 186




http://www.americasupportsyou.mil


"Share your food with the hungry, and give shelter to the homeless. Give clothes to those who need them, and do not hide from relatives who need your help." - Isaiah 58:7 (New Living Translation)
Freeway
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Since: 3.1.02
From: Calgary

Since last post: 363 days
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#34 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.23
Dear lord, it's been awhile...

OBAMA: 364 [Indiana, Ohio, Florida & North Carolina swing]
McCAIN: 174 [Montana, North Dakota & Missouri swing]
MoeGates
Andouille








Since: 6.1.02
From: Brooklyn, NY

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 8 hours
#35 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.04
52-48 Obama. Let's call it an even 338-200 in the electoral college. 57-43 in the Senate. Lieberman gets to keep his Chairmanship, but has to do a little public self-flaggelation and talk about how much he'll love working with Obama. Blajogevich tires of dealing with being Governor and appoints himself to the Senate seat - what are you gonna do?

Coleman and McConnell hang on (there is not a chance in hell of knocking off McConnell), but Chambliss has to go to a runoff (which he wins) and Dole and Sununu are toast. Dems pick up 28 in the house.



www.allcitynewyork.com
TheBucsFan
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Since: 2.1.02

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#36 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.65
    Originally posted by MoeGates
    52-48 Obama. Let's call it an even 338-200 in the electoral college. 57-43 in the Senate. Lieberman gets to keep his Chairmanship, but has to do a little public self-flaggelation and talk about how much he'll love working with Obama.


What incentive is there for the Democrats to allow Lieberman a chairmanship if they have 57 seats? With him, they still don't have 60, without him, they don't lose anything.
Canard
Cotechino








Since: 25.7.05
From: England

Since last post: 146 days
Last activity: 5 days
#37 Posted on
Obama wins 311-227 by virtue of taking Virginia and Ohio, but McCain will just manage to edge Florida and take most of the rest of the states that are currently "too close to call".
SchippeWreck
Banger








Since: 26.3.03
From: Glendale, CA

Since last post: 4 days
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#38 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.71
Obama 333
McCain 205



"It's magic! We don't need to explain it!"
drjayphd
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Since: 22.4.02
From: Long Island

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#39 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.54
You wanted the best, you got... Out of Context Quote of the Week.

"Two men enter. One man leaves...with groceries." (SchippeWreck)


Obama 344, McCain 194. As the kids would say, the real winners are the fans.

Oh, and Senate goes 58-42 to the Democrats, aaaaaand the House goes 260-175 the same.



whatever
Lap cheong








Since: 12.2.02
From: Cleveland, Ohio

Since last post: 4 days
Last activity: 1 hour
#40 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.56
Obama 356 (Florida, Ohio, North Dakota, Virginia, North Carolina)
McCain 182 (Missouri, Montana, Arizona, Indiana)

I can't wait to watch the results tonight. I only hope we get an actual resolution tonight.




"As you may have read in Robert Parker's Wine Newsletter, 'Donaghy Estates tastes like the urine of Satan, after a hefty portion of asparagus.'" Jack Donaghy, 30 Rock

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- BigVitoMark, Arnold Supporters (2003)
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