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20.8.14 1934
The W - Current Events & Politics - 2008 Election Prediction Thread
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spf
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
Well, we're less than a week out from the big day. So let's see what everyone is reading in their crystal balls.

For the big election I'm seeing an Obama win, but not by a huge Electoral College margin. In the end I say Obama flips Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, holds onto Pennsylvania, and takes Virginia, to give him a 291-247 win. McCain takes Ohio and Florida but still loses.

In the Senate I say the Dems hold all their seats, and take Oregon, Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Alaska, and North Carolina.

(edited by spf on 29.10.08 1457)


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Since: 20.6.02
From: I am the Tag Team Champions!

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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.30
Obama wins. It won't be a landslide, as I really think voter machine malfunctions will swing some states red. Hey, remember when the Democrats took Congress and swore up and down that addressing the faulty voting machines would be near the top of their agenda? Yeah, neither do I. But the gap is too much to overcome for McCain and Obama will eke out a win.

I also predict that Ted Stevens loses his race, Al Franken and Norm Coleman BOTH lose their race when Dean Barkley jumps out of nowhere to win that seat, and Mitch McConnell holds on to his seat.




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Big Bad
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Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.56
Obama flips New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa to win, takes at least two of Missouri, Florida or Ohio, and then takes at least one of the 'entrenched' red states like North Carolina, Indiana or Georgia just to really stick it in the GOP's craw.

Dems pick up eight Senate seats --- Virginia (Warner), New Mexico and Colorado (the Udalls), Alaska (Begich), New Hampshire (Shaheen), Minnesota (Franken), North Carolina (Hagan), Oregon (Merkley). This puts them just short of the veto-proof majority, as Mitch "Filibuster" McConnell holds onto his seat in Kentucky and Chambliss barely holds on in Georgia. Actually, if Georgia ends up going to a run-off, I think I might actually favour Jim Martin, since you know the Dems would pour big-time money into the race and Obama probably spend most of his first month as president-elect down in Georgia campaigning on Martin's behalf.

Dems pick up 25-30 seats in the House.

Basically, if you're a Republican, Tuesday is going to be a rough night.
Lexus
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Since: 2.1.02
From: Stafford, VA

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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.35
Virginia is a tough call. In northern VA it goes McCain to Obama almost house by house. Inside the beltway it's almost a forgone conclusion it's Obama the way most people I talk to, even though out of everybody I've heard say that about 50% aren't voting for the man, so I think it's a toss up. Alexandria, Arlington, Tysons, and Falls Church, 4 of the bigger areas within, really does diversify greatly.



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DrDirt
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Since: 8.10.03
From: flyover country

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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.83
    Originally posted by Big Bad
    Basically, if you're a Republican, Tuesday is going to be a rough night.


Maybe but I am not as sure as others re the Congress. As far as McCain/Obama, it will depend on how effective McCain'a latest strategy is and how many people will hesitate to vote for a nonwhite male. But I think the popular vote could be closer than the electoral vote.

And if the Republicans are massacred, it may be what they need to remember what got them in power in the first place.

(edited by DrDirt on 29.10.08 1801)


Perception is reality
BigDaddyLoco
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Since: 2.1.02

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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.36
I'm real nervous about the Election. I would have thought I would have been even more horrified about seeing Bush win a second term four years ago, but the thought of McCain/Palin running things just scares the shit out of me.

I really think that Obama should be running away with this after the last 8 years and a split up Republican base, but it's just not happening. You have to figure any candidate the parties send out is going to get at least 40% of the popular vote, even Mondale managed to eke 40% in '84. So, I think that landslides are even closer than most people realize. So you would think that coming off a year in which the sitting president is maybe getting a 25% approval rating that Obama could at most get 54 or 55% of the vote, but a lot more people than I thought are really set in their ways and fear a new direction so I am thinking he maybe tops out at 52% of the popular vote. I think the key is all the young people that signed up to vote when Obama was getting his word out, and whether they turn out in the numbers they signed on for. I figure these are people like me who don't participate in polls.

Obama wasn't my first choice out of all these candidates oh however long ago, but I am behind him now partly because of the hope he brings and partly because of the fear I have of what McCain has become.



(edited by BigDaddyLoco on 30.10.08 0004)
Joseph Ryder
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Since: 19.3.02
From: Seattle, WA

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#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.15
You could look at it like the dems are struggling if they're not holding a 25 pt lead after 8 years of Bush, or you could think "wow...the Repubs have a Vietnam war hero running against a black muslim terrorist arab atheist whose middle name is Hussein and whose last names rhymes with Osama (or maybe IS Osama!)....and they're LOSING."

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DrDirt
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Since: 8.10.03
From: flyover country

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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.83
BigDaddyLoco, Bush has low approval ratings but so does just about every pol. People trust no pol much anymore.

As far as the young adults registered, there is a difference in registering and voting. I hope you are right and they come out, no matter who they vote for. But, we have seen this in the past and they often disappear when the time arrives.



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Zeruel
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

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#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
For no reason at all, I am predicting that Obama will win 315-223 and taking WA, OR, CA, & NV in the west, and New England, PA, NJ, NY, MD, DC, VA, MN, WI, MI, IA, MO, IL, IN, & OH.

I see McCain taking the rest which is mostly flyover country, the deep south, and Alaska and Hawaii.



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djp
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Since: 16.2.07
From: 3rd Floor, NW window

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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.59
I think the election will be very close. If for no other reason that the polls are just misleading. We learned not to trust them after the primaries when Obama was supposedly way ahead in a state (Michigan, was it?) and Hillary ended up winning it. That is of course if they have not been completely revamped. Obama by a nose (subject to change).
OlFuzzyBastard
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Since: 28.4.02
From: Pittsburgh, PA

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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.69
Obama takes the general election, 320-215. McCain wins Ohio and Florida (pretty much no matter who the people there vote for - oh snap!) but Obama wins pretty much everything else major that's in play, including Indiana, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Iowa. None of the really crazy stuff is going to happen (McCain wins Georgia and North Carolina).

Popular vote is something like 54% Obama, 45% McCain, 1% various third parties. Ron Paul will get 17 write-in votes, 9 of which will somehow be misspelled.

The Democrats gain seats in the Senate - they manage to turn Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Oregon and Alaska (!), but still wind up one seat short of the veto-proof majority.


EDIT: Decided to pick on Ron Paul for no reason.

(edited by OlFuzzyBastard on 30.10.08 1105)
Big Stewie
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Since: 17.2.04
From: St. Louis, MO

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#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.94
Having successfully proven my ignorance of Alaskan politics, it's time enough to take on nationwide elections...

Barack Obama dominates the electoral vote, 341-197, winning the obvious states along with Missouri, Ohio, Florida, and Indiana. The popular vote will be much closer, but I'll guess it will look like this:

Barack Obama 53%
John McCain 45%
Bob Barr 1.4%
everybody else 0.6%

Congress increase their Democratic totals, with the House taking a 258-177 lead, and the Senate at 59-41 Democratic (lumping Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders with the Dems).
Guru Zim
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Since: 9.12.01
From: Bay City, OR

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#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.40
McCain wins decisively because the Obama vote doesn't bother to show up.




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spf
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

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#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
    Originally posted by Zeruel
    For no reason at all, I am predicting that Obama will win 315-223 and taking WA, OR, CA, & NV in the west, and New England, PA, NJ, NY, MD, DC, VA, MN, WI, MI, IA, MO, IL, IN, & OH.

    I see McCain taking the rest which is mostly flyover country, the deep south, and Alaska and Hawaii.

You do know that Hawaii hasn't voted for a GOP person since sometime around the Stone Age right?



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Mr. Boffo
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Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

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#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.63
    Originally posted by spf
      Originally posted by Zeruel
      For no reason at all, I am predicting that Obama will win 315-223 and taking WA, OR, CA, & NV in the west, and New England, PA, NJ, NY, MD, DC, VA, MN, WI, MI, IA, MO, IL, IN, & OH.

      I see McCain taking the rest which is mostly flyover country, the deep south, and Alaska and Hawaii.

    You do know that Hawaii hasn't voted for a GOP person since sometime around the Stone Age right?

1984.
And while Hawaii is indeed a safe state for Barack Obama this year, it's worth noting that their governor, Linda Lingle, is a Republican.
Lise
Mrs. Guru








Since: 11.12.01

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#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.43
I wouldn't count on Merkley winning Oregon. Until the last week or so he's come across as a jibbering idiot throughout the campaign.

Though between the recent Obama endorsement, and Merkley being the only candidate to show up for his OPB (NPR) interview, he has improved his standing quite a bit.

I really don't understand why ANYONE would decline a chance to debate their opponent on an NPR station especially when there's only one NPR station for the entire state (the local channels are just rebroadcasts). I don't care if you think that NPR is part of the "liberal media elite" more people in Oregon listen to OPB than watch any one TV channel. I think declining that appearance is going to hurt Smith more than anything else.

This campaign has been crazy, and with the "supporter" (non-candidate approved) ads and flyers on both sides, with friends like that who needs enemies?
spf
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

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#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
    Originally posted by Mr. Boffo
      Originally posted by spf
        Originally posted by Zeruel
        For no reason at all, I am predicting that Obama will win 315-223 and taking WA, OR, CA, & NV in the west, and New England, PA, NJ, NY, MD, DC, VA, MN, WI, MI, IA, MO, IL, IN, & OH.

        I see McCain taking the rest which is mostly flyover country, the deep south, and Alaska and Hawaii.

      You do know that Hawaii hasn't voted for a GOP person since sometime around the Stone Age right?

    1984.
    And while Hawaii is indeed a safe state for Barack Obama this year, it's worth noting that their governor, Linda Lingle, is a Republican.

1984 and 1972 don't count. Everyone voted GOP those years. I think there was a law.

I didn't know they had a GOP gov. I just know the Pres. and Senate races are usually walkovers for the Dems.



2007 W-League Fantasy Football champion!
The Thrill
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Since: 16.4.02
From: Green Bay, WI

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#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.25
Welcome home, men of the 2nd Bn, 127th Inf, 32d "Red Arrow" Brigade, WI Army Nat'l Guard! Good luck to those down south.

Like many places on teh Internets, ABC News has a thingie where you can do the electoral-map mambo yourself.

I'll call IN red and NM blue, which puts Obama ahead 264-174 with 7 toss-up states: NV, CO, MO, OH, FL, VA and NC. Of those, McCain can only afford to lose Nevada, and must hit the parlay on the other 6. (Sorry, John, you're not taking Pennsylvania or New Hampshire.) If by some miracle McCain DOES hit said parlay, he wins 274-264.

I'll give McCain OH, FL, MO, VA and NC...I just think that voters there, sooner or later, will come back to voting GOP. Meanwhile, Obama takes Nevada and Colorado, and that's all he needs.

McCain makes it closer than most pundits predict, but Obama still takes it 278-260. No 2000 drama, please.






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DrDirt
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Since: 8.10.03
From: flyover country

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#19 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.83
    Originally posted by Guru Zim
    McCain wins decisively because the Obama vote doesn't bother to show up.


I think Obama has considered this. Relying on first time voters can be very dicey.



Perception is reality
AWArulz
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Since: 28.1.02
From: Louisville, KY

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Y!:
#20 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.72
    Originally posted by DrDirt
      Originally posted by Guru Zim
      McCain wins decisively because the Obama vote doesn't bother to show up.


    I think Obama has considered this. Relying on first time voters can be very dicey.


I think this one is going to be the exception to the rule, Doc. Semi landslide. Abortion clinics like hot dog carts. Guys with jobs in line for food, served by rich poor people. A fun four years. The Warren Court restored.



We'll be back right after order has been restored here in the Omni Center.


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